Imboni yamakhemikhali ibhekene nokwenyuka kwentengo "okungokomlando" ngo-2025, okuqhutshwa ukuhlelwa kabusha kwesimo sokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kanye nokusatshalaliswa kabusha kwenani kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo. Ngezansi ukuhlaziywa kwezinto ezibangela ukwenyuka kwentengo, umqondo ngemuva kokwehluka kwenzuzo, izindlela zokuhlelwa kabusha kwemboni, kanye namathuba okutshalwa kwezimali.
I. Izinto Ezibangela Ukwenyuka Kwamanani Ezijulile
1. Izinguquko Ezinkulu Ezintweni Zokusetshenziswa Ezingavuthiwe
- Ukungalingani kokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe kanye nesidingo: Ukuncipha kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kuhlanganiswe nokukhula okulinganiselwe okuvela kubakhiqizi abangebona abe-OPEC kugcine i-Brent engahluziwe ingaphezu kuka-$100 ngebhareli.
- Isidingo esikhulu sezinto ezintsha zamandla: Amanani e-Lithium carbonate (izinga lezimboni lamabhethri e-LFP) akhuphuke ngo-120% YoY, kuyilapho i-DMC electrolyte solvent idlule uphawu lwe-¥10,000/ton.
- Izindleko zekhabhoni ezicacile: Izindleko zekhabhoni ze-CBAM ze-EU manje sezimboza amakhemikhali ayisisekelo njenge-ammonia yokwenziwa kanye ne-methanol.
2. Ukuqina Kokuphakelwa Kwesakhiwo
- Ukufuduka kwamandla aseYurophu: I-BASF kanye nezinye iziqhwaga zivale u-30% wamandla e-ammonia yokwenziwa yaseJalimane, zithutha umkhiqizo ziye e-US Gulf Coast.
- Ukuguqulwa kwe-supply-side 2.0 yaseShayina: Izidingo zokuthuthukiswa kwemvelo kanye nobuchwepheshe ezimbonini zodayi kanye ne-titanium dioxide zisheshise ukuphuma kwabakhiqizi abancane kuya kwabaphakathi.
- Izithiyo zezokuthutha ze-geopolitical: Inkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu ibangele ukwanda okungu-300% kwezindleko zokuthumela e-Asia-Europe, okwandisa ukwanda kwentengo yemikhiqizo ezwela ezokuthutha njenge-TDI.
3. Izindleko Ezidlulayo Ezivela Kumashifu Obuchwepheshe
- Ukuthengiswa kwezinto ezisekelwe ku-bio: Amanani e-PLA abiza iprimiyamu engu-40% kune-PE yendabuko, lapho i-Apple ne-Tesla zingena ezinkontilekeni zesikhathi eside.
- Ukufakwa kwamakhemikhali e-semiconductor endaweni: Amanani e-hydrofluoric acid e-electronic-grade ahlanzekile kakhulu adlule u-$50,000/ton, kanti i-premium engu-15% idlula ezinye izindlela zaseJapan/South Korea.
II. Imephu Yokwehlukahlukana Kwenzuzo
| Ingxenye | Ushintsho lwe-ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Ukwanda Kokusabalala Kwentengo | Abashayeli Abayinhloko |
| Izinto Ezintsha Zamandla | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Ukuphumelela kwebhethri eliqinile |
| Amakhemikhali Ahlanganisiwe | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Ubunzima bezindleko zomzila osekelwe emalahleni |
| Amakhemikhali Akhethekile | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Isidingo sezinto zezimoto ezilula |
| Amakhemikhali ezolimo | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Ukwamukelwa kwezitshalo ze-GMO + isomiso saseNingizimu Melika |
III. Ukufuduka Kwenani Kuyo Yonke I-Supply Chain
1. Abanikazi Bezinsizakusebenza Abaphezulu (isib. abakhiqizi be-phosphate kanye ne-lithium) babusa amandla entengo, kanti izinkampani ezifana ne-Yuntianhua zithola inzuzo engaphezulu kuka-50% kwikota eyodwa.
2. Izingxenye Eziphakathi Nezithiyo Eziphakeme:
- Ama-Fluoropolymers: Izindleko zokucubungula izinto zokuhlukanisa i-PVDF zifinyelela ku-¥80,000/ithani.
- Amakhemikhali ahlanzekile kakhulu: Izidingo zokuhlanzeka kwe-isopropanol yezinga le-semiconductor zikhuphuke zisuka ku-99.99% zaya ku-99.9999%.
3. Abahlinzeki Bokwenza Ngokwezifiso Abasezansi: Izinkampani ezifana neCovestro zethule amamodeli "okukhokha ngokusebenza kahle", okwandisa ukugcinwa kwamakhasimende ngo-30%.
IV. Amaphuzu Abalulekile Okuphumelela Ka-2025
1. Amafasitela Okufaka Ubuchwepheshe Esikhundleni:
- Inzuzo yezindleko zika-Ethane Cracking iyancipha, kanti i-ROI yephrojekthi ye-PDH yehla ngaphansi kuka-5%.
- Izindleko zokukhiqiza i-BDO ezisekelwe ku-bio zehle ngo-25% uma kuqhathaniswa nemizila kaphethiloli.
2. Ukulinganisa Kabusha Kwesifunda:
- Isikhungo samakhemikhali esibabule namakhemikhali aseMpumalanga Ephakathi: I-SABIC yaseSaudi yakha isitshalo se-sulfuric acid esingamathani angu-2M ngonyaka esingabizi kakhulu.
- Izimbozo zaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia: I-Nippon Paint Vietnam isebenza ngokusetshenziswa okungu-120%.
3. Ukuhlolwa kabusha kwe-ESG:
- Amaphrojekthi e-ammonia aluhlaza asekelwe ku-hydrogen athola amaphrimiyamu okulinganisa amanani kathathu.
- Ukuvinjelwa kwe-EU kwemikhiqizo equkethe i-PFAS kukhuthaza i-CAGR engaphezulu kuka-60% kwezinye izindlela.
V. I-Matrix Yezinqumo Zokutshalwa Kwezimali
Izinto Eziza Kuqala Zokwabiwa Kwamasu:
- Izinto ezivimbela kakhulu: Ama-core e-Aramid honeycomb, ama-precursors e-silicon carbide.
- Iziphazamisi zenqubo: Ukwenziwa kwe-adiponitrile okusekelwe ku-Plasma, ukuguqulwa kwe-CO₂-kuya-ku-DMC.
- Amaqhawe afihliwe: Abahlubuli be-Photoresist, izivalo zezindiza.
Izexwayiso Zengozi:
- I-US ibeka intela engu-15% ezintweni ezisekelwe ku-bio zaseShayina (kusukela ngo-Q3 2025).
- Ukuthuthukiswa kwebhethri le-sodium-ion kunganciphisa isidingo sezinto ze-lithium.
Imboni ibhekene nokuhlelwa kabusha kwenani layo elibaluleke kakhulu kusukela ngo-2008. Izinkampani ezinekhono lokuhlukanisa ubuchwepheshe kanye nokuhlanganiswa okuqondile, kanye nabadlali abakhethekile abanelayisensi yokukhiqiza engavamile, yizona zinto ezibalulekile ezigxilwe kuzo. Phakathi kokuguquguquka okukhulu kwentengo, izinkampani ezigcina ukuhwebelana kwempahla ngaphansi kwezinsuku ezingama-30 zizobonisa ukuqina kwenzuzo okuqinile.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Meyi-30-2025