Imboni yamakhemikhali ibhekene nokwenyuka kwentengo "okungokomlando" ngo-2025, okuqhutshwa ukuhlelwa kabusha kwezinto eziguqukayo zesidingo sokuhlinzeka kanye nokusabalalisa kabusha inani kuwo wonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka. Ngezansi ukuhlaziya okubangela ukukhuphuka kwentengo, umqondo obangela ukwehlukana kwenzuzo, izindlela zokuhlelwa kabusha kwemboni, namathuba okutshala imali.
I. Abashayeli Abahlezi Ngokujulile Bokukhuphuka Kwamanani
1. Ushintsho Lwezinguquko Ezintweni Ezingavuthiwe
- Ukungalingani kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe: Ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ kuhlanganiswe nokukhula okulinganiselwe okuvela kubakhiqizi abangewona abe-OPEC kugcine i-Brent crude ingaphezu kuka-$100/umphongolo.
- Isidingo esiqhumayo sezinto ezintsha zamandla: I-Lithium carbonate (izinga lemboni lamabhethri e-LFP) amanani akhuphuke ngo-120% YoY, kuyilapho isinyibilikisi se-DMC se-electrolyte sephule umaki ongu-¥10,000/ton.
- Izindleko zekhabhoni ezicacile: Izintengo zekhabhoni ze-CBAM ze-EU manje zimboza amakhemikhali ayisisekelo njenge-synthetic ammonia ne-methanol.
2. Structural Supply-Side Tightness
- Ukuthuthwa komthamo wase-Europe: I-BASF nezinye izikhondlakhondla zavala u-30% womthamo we-ammonia wokwenziwa waseJalimane, zathuthela ukukhiqizwa e-US Gulf Coast.
- Inguquko ye-supply side yase-China 2.0: Izidingo zokuthuthukiswa kwezemvelo nezobuchwepheshe ezimbonini zikadayi neze-titanium dioxide zisheshise ukuphuma kwabakhiqizi abancane ukuya kwabamaphakathi.
- Izingqinamba ze-Geopolitical Logistics: Inkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu ibangele ukunyuka kwama-300% ezindlekweni zokuthumela zase-Asia-Europe, ukusabalala kwentengo okunwebekayo emikhiqizweni ezwela ezokuthutha njenge-TDI.
3. Ukudlula Kwezindleko Kusuka Ekushintsheni Kwezobuchwepheshe
- Ukuthengiswa kwezinto ezisekelwe ku-bio: Amanani e-PLA ayala iprimiyamu engu-40% ngaphezu kwe-PE evamile, i-Apple ne-Tesla zivalelana ezinkontilekeni zesikhathi eside.
- Ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kwamakhemikhali esemiconductor: Izintengo ze-ultra-pure electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid zidlule u-$50,000/ton, nge-premium engu-15% kunezinye izindlela zase-Japan/South Korea.
II. I-Profit Divergence Map
| Ingxenye | I-ROE Change (2024 vs. 2025) | Ukunwetshwa Kwentengo | Abashayeli Ababalulekile |
| Izinto Ezintsha Zamandla | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Ukuphumelela kwebhethri lesimo esiqinile |
| Amakhemikhali Enqwaba | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Ububi bezindleko zomzila osuselwa kumalahle |
| Amakhemikhali Akhethekile | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Isidingo sezinto zezimoto ezingasindi |
| Amakhemikhali ezolimo | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Ukwamukelwa kwezitshalo ze-GMO + isomiso saseNingizimu Melika |
III. Ukufuduka Kwenani Kuwo wonke Uchungechunge Lokuhlinzeka
1. Abaphathi Bezinsiza Eziphezulu (isb., abakhiqizi be-phosphate ne-lithium) baphethe amandla entengo, nezinkampani ezifana ne-Yuntianhua zithola >50% wesamba semalini ngekota eyodwa.
2. Izigaba ze-Midstream High-Barrier:
- Ama-Fluoropolymers: Izindleko zokucubungula impahla yesihlukanisi se-PVDF zifinyelela ku-¥80,000/ton.
- Amakhemikhali e-Ultra-high-purity: Izidingo zokuhlanzeka kwe-isopropanol ze-Semiconductor-grade zikhuphuke zisuka ku-99.99% zaya ku-99.9999%.
3. Abahlinzeki bokwenza ngendlela oyifisayo abaphansi: Izinkampani ezifana ne-Covestro zethule amamodeli "okukhokha ukuze usebenze", zandisa ukugcinwa kwamakhasimende ngo-30%.
IV. 2025 Amaphuzu Abalulekile Okuphumelela
1. Ukushintshanisa Ubuchwepheshe IWindows:
- Inzuzo yezindleko zokuqhekeka kwe-Ethane iyancipha, kanti iphrojekthi ye-PDH ROI yehla ngaphansi kuka-5%.
- Izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-Bio-based BDO zehla ngo-25% uma kuqhathaniswa nemizila ye-petroleum.
2. Ukulinganisa kabusha Kwesifunda:
- Ihabhu le-sulfur-chemical eMpumalanga Ephakathi: I-SABIC yase-Saudi yakha isitshalo se-sulfuric acid esibiza kancane esingu-2M/ngonyaka.
- I-Southeast Asian coatings iphakathi: I-Nippon Paint Vietnam isebenza ngo-120% wokusetshenziswa kwamandla.
3. Ukuhlaziywa kwe-ESG:
- Amaphrojekthi we-ammonia asuselwa ku-hydrogen aluhlaza athola amaprimiyamu okulinganisa ama-3x.
- I-EU ivimbela idrayivu yemikhiqizo equkethe i-PFAS >60% CAGR kwezinye izindlela.
V. Investment Decision Matrix
Okubalulekile Kokwabiwa Okubalulekile:
- Izinto ezinezithiyo eziphakeme: Izinhlayiya ze-Aramid lezinyosi, izandulela ze-silicon carbide.
- Iziphazamisi zenqubo: I-Plasma-based adiponitrile synthesis, ukuguqulwa kwe-CO₂-to-DMC.
- Oshampeni abafihliwe: Abahluli bezithombe, ama-sealant ebanga le-aerospace.
Izaziso Zobungozi:
- I-US ibeka amanani entengo angu-15% ezintweni ezisekelwe ku-bio yase-China (isebenza nge-Q3 2025).
- Ukuphumelela kwebhethri le-sodium-ion kungase kudideke isidingo se-lithium.
Imboni ibhekene nokuhlelwa kabusha kwe-value chain okubaluleke kakhulu kusukela ngo-2008. Izinkampani ezinekhono lokuhlukanisa ubuchwepheshe namandla okuhlanganisa aqondile, kanye nabadlali be-niche abanamalayisense okukhiqiza ayivelakancane, yizinto ezibalulekile okugxilwe kuzo. Phakathi nokuntengantenga kwentengo, amafemu agcina inzuzo yezimpahla ngaphansi kwezinsuku ezingama-30 azobonisa ukukhuthazela okuqinile kwenzuzo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-30-2025