Umthelela “weZithelo Ezibuyiselayo” zase-US Kuchungechunge Lwemboni Yezimboni ze-Aromatic Hydrocarbon yaseChina

Ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-hydrocarbon enephunga elimnandi, cishe akukho ukuhweba okuqondile kwemikhiqizo enamakha phakathi kwezwe lase-China ne-United States. Kodwa-ke, i-US ingenisa ingxenye enkulu yemikhiqizo yayo enamakha evela e-Asia, abahlinzeki base-Asia abalelwa ku-40–55% we-US ethengwayo ye-benzene, i-paraxylene (PX), i-toluene, ne-xylenes exutshiwe. Imithelela ebalulekile ihlaziywa ngezansi:

Benzeni

I-China incike kakhulu kwamanye amazwe nge-benzene, kanti i-South Korea njengomphakeli wayo oyinhloko. Kokubili i-China ne-US bangabathengi be-benzene, akukho ukuhweba okuqondile phakathi kwabo, okunciphisa umthelela oqondile wezindleko emakethe ye-benzene yase-China. Ngo-2024, izimpahla zase-South Korea zazingu-46% we-benzene yase-US ethengwayo. Ngokusho kwedatha yamasiko yase-South Korea, i-South Korea yathumela amathani angaphezu kuka-600,000 we-benzene e-US ngo-2024. Kodwa, kusukela ku-Q4 2023, iwindi le-arbitrage phakathi kwe-South Korea ne-US livaliwe, ukuqondisa kabusha ukugeleza kwe-South Korean kugeleza kuya e-China—umthengi omkhulu we-benzene wase-Asia kanye nengcindezi enkulu ye-benzene yase-Asia ekhuphula ngokuphawulekayo imakethe ye-benzene yase-China. Uma amanani entengo ase-US ebekwa ngaphandle kokukhululwa ku-benzene esekelwe ku-petroleum, izimpahla zomhlaba wonke ezaziqondiswe e-US ekuqaleni zingashintshela e-China, okugcine amanani aphezulu wokungenisa. Ezansi, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo ethathwe kwi-benzene (isb, izinto zikagesi zasendlini, izindwangu) kungase kubhekane nempendulo engemihle ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko.

 I-Toluene

Ukuthunyelwa kwe-toluene kwase-China kukhule kancane eminyakeni yamuva, ikakhulukazi kuqondiswe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ne-India, ngokuhwebelana okuqondile okunganakwa ne-US Nokho, i-US ingenisa amavolumu e-toluene amakhulu avela e-Asia, okuhlanganisa amathani angu-230,000 e-metric asuka eNingizimu Korea ngo-2024 (57% yenani eliphelele lempahla yetholuene yase-US). Izintela zase-US zingaphazamisa ukuthunyelwa kwe-toluene yaseNingizimu Korea e-US, kwandise ukutholakala kwe-toluene e-Asia futhi kwandise ukuncintisana ezimakethe ezifana ne-Southeast Asia ne-India, okungenzeka kucindezele isabelo se-China sokuthumela ngaphandle.

Ama-Xylenes

I-China isalokhu ingenisa kwamanye amazwe ama-xylenes axubile, ngaphandle kokuhwebelana okuqondile ne-US I-US ithenga kwamanye amazwe amavolumu amakhulu ama-xylenes, ikakhulukazi avela eNingizimu Korea (ama-57% e-US angenisa ngaphansi kwekhodi ye-HS 27073000). Kodwa-ke, lo mkhiqizo ufakiwe kuhlu lokungakhokhi intela yase-US, okunciphisa umthelela emisebenzini ye-arbitrage yase-Asia-US.

I-styrene

I-US ingumthengisi womhlaba jikelele we-styrene, ikakhulukazi ehlinzeka nge-Mexico, iNingizimu Melika, ne-Europe, ngokungenisa okuncane (amathani angama-210,000 we-metric ngo-2024, cishe wonke avela eCanada). Imakethe ye-styrene yase-China inikezwa ngokweqile, futhi izinqubomgomo zokulwa nokulahla sekuyisikhathi eside zivimbe ukuhweba kwe-styrene yase-US-China. Kodwa-ke, i-US ihlela ukukhokhisa intela engu-25% ku-benzene yaseNingizimu Korea, okungase kukhulise ukunikezwa kwe-styrene yase-Asia. Ngaleso sikhathi, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla yasendlini encike ku-styrene yase-China (isb., ama-air conditioner, iziqandisi) zibhekene nezindleko eziphakeme zase-US (kufika ku-80%), okunomthelela omkhulu kulo mkhakha. Ngakho-ke, amanani entengo ase-US azothinta kakhulu imboni ye-styrene yaseShayina ngokukhuphuka kwezindleko kanye nokwenza buthaka isidingo somfula.

I-Paraxylene (PX)

I-China ithumela kwamanye amazwe cishe ayikho i-PX futhi ithembele kakhulu ekuthengisweni okuvela eSouth Korea, Japan, naseSoutheast Asia, ngaphandle kohwebo oluqondile lwase-US. Ngo-2024, i-South Korea yahlinzeka ngo-22.5% we-US PX ethengwayo (300,000 metric tons, 6% yakho konke okuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-South Korea). Izintela zase-US zingase zehlise ukugeleza kwe-South Korean PX ukuya e-US, kodwa ngisho noma iqondiswa kabusha e-China, ivolumu ingaba nomthelela olinganiselwe. Sekukonke, amanani entengo ase-US-China azothinta kancane ukunikezwa kwe-PX kodwa angacindezela ngokungaqondile ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu ephansi komfula kanye nezingubo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.

"Izintela ezibuyiselanayo" zase-US zizolungisa kabusha ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke kwama-hydrocarbon anephunga elimnandi kunokuphazamisa ngokuqondile ukuhwebelana kwe-China-US. Ubungozi obubalulekile bubandakanya ukuthengwa ngokweqile ezimakethe zase-Asia, ukuncintisana okuqinile kwezindawo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, kanye nengcindezi ekhuphukayo evela ezindlekweni eziphakeme zezimpahla eziqediwe (isb, izinto zikagesi, izindwangu). Imboni ye-China enephunga elimnandi kufanele izulazule kumaketanga okunikezela aqondiswe kabusha futhi ivumelane nokushintshashintsha kwamaphethini okufunwa komhlaba.