Ngo-2022, ngaphansi kwesizinda sentengo ephezulu yamalahle aluhlaza kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza asekhaya emakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya, idlule emjikelezweni wokudlidliza kwe-"W" nge-amplitude ephezulu engaphezu kuka-36%. Uma sibheke phambili ku-2023, abantu abangaphakathi embonini bakholelwa ukuthi imakethe ye-methanol yalo nyaka izoqhubeka nokuhambisana nesimo se-macro kanye nomkhuba womjikelezo wemboni. Ngokulungiswa kobudlelwano bokunikezwa kanye nesidingo kanye nokulungiswa kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sokukhiqiza sikhule ngasikhathi sinye, imakethe izozinza futhi izinzile. Iphinde ikhombise izici zokunciphisa ukukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza, izinguquko esakhiweni sabathengi, kanye nokushintshashintsha okuningi emakethe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umthelela wokunikezwa okungenisiwe emakethe yasekhaya ungabonakala kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.
Izinga lokukhula kwamandla liyehla
Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-Henan Chemical Network, ngo-2022, amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol ezweni lami ayengamathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.545, kanti amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol entsha emhlabeni wonke ayegxile eShayina. Ekupheleni kuka-2022, amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol ezweni lami ayengamathani ayizigidi ezingu-113.06, okwenza u-59% wamandla okukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke, kanti amandla okukhiqiza asebenzayo ayengamathani ayizigidi ezingu-100, ukwanda ngo-5.7% unyaka nonyaka.
UHan Hongwei, iphini likamongameli we-Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, uthe ngo-2023, amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol ezweni lami ayaqhubeka nokukhula, kodwa izinga lokukhula lizokwehla. Ngo-2023, amandla amasha e-methanol ezweni lami angaba cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.9. Ngaleso sikhathi, amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol yasekhaya azofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-118, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-4.4%. Njengamanje, idivayisi entsha ekhiqizwa ngamalahle ibe yi-methanol incishisiwe kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuthazwa komgomo "wekhabhoni ephindwe kabili" kanye nezindleko zokutshalwa kwezimali eziphezulu zamaphrojekthi amakhemikhali amalahle. Ukuthi amandla amasha angaguqulwa ngempumelelo abe amandla okukhiqiza angempela esikhathini esizayo nakho kudinga ukunaka isiqondiso senqubomgomo sokuhlela "Uhlelo Lweminyaka Eyishumi Nane Lweshumi Nane" oluqondiswe embonini entsha yamakhemikhali amalahle, kanye nezinguquko ezinqubweni zokuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye namalahle.
Ngokusho kolwazi oluvela emakethe, kusukela ngoJanuwari 29, intengo yokuhweba evamile ye-methanol yasekhaya ikhuphuke yaya ku-2,600 yuan (intengo yamathani, efanayo ngezansi), kanti intengo yechweba ikhuphuke yaya ku-2,800 yuan, ukwanda kwanyanga zonke kufinyelele ku-13%. "Umthelela wokuqaliswa kwamandla amasha emakethe ungabonakala engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukubuya kwentengo ye-methanol ekuqaleni konyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke." kusho uHan Hongwei.
Izinguquko zesakhiwo sokusetshenziswa
Umuntu ophethe iphrojekthi ye-Zhongyuan Futures Methanol uthe ngenxa yokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane kanye nobuthakathaka bomnotho we-macroeconomic, isakhiwo sokusetshenziswa kwe-methanol esikhathini esizayo naso sizoshintsha. Phakathi kwazo, ijubane lokuthuthukiswa kwamalahle -kuya -olefin anokusetshenziswa okungu-55% lingase lehle, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwezimboni zendabuko ezingezansi kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule futhi.
UCui Huajie, umuntu ophethe i-Henan Ruiyuanxin's Chemical Management, uthe izidingo zama-olefin ziye zaba buthaka kusukela ngo-2022, futhi yize imakethe ye-methanol eluhlaza ilungiswe yizimo ezishaqisayo, isalokhu iphezulu kakhulu. Ngaphansi kwezindleko eziphakeme, i-coal-to-olefin igcina ukulahlekelwa kokulahlekelwa unyaka wonke. Ethintwe yilokhu, ukuthuthukiswa kwe-coal-to-olefin kubonise izimpawu zokwehla kwejubane. Ngomklamo omkhulu wokuhlanza kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwamakhemikhali wenqubo eyodwa yasekhaya ngo-2022 -Shenghong refining kanye nokukhiqizwa okuphelele, iphrojekthi ye-Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) ye-methanol izoba ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.4 ngokombono. Izinga lokukhula kwesidingo sangempela sama-olefin ku-methanol lizoqhubeka nokwehla.
Ngokusho komphathi weHenan Energy Group, emkhakheni wendabuko we-methanol, kuzoqalwa inani elikhulu lamaphrojekthi e-acetic acid kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2021 ngaphansi kokuheha inzuzo ephezulu, futhi amandla okukhiqiza i-acetic acid agcine ukwanda kwaminyaka yonke kwamathani ayisigidi esisodwa eminyakeni emibili edlule. Ngo-2023, kulindeleke ukuthi kufakwe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.2 e-acetic acid, kulandelwe amathani angu-260,000 e-methane chloride, amathani angu-180,000 e-methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) kanye namathani angu-550,000 e-N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). Sekukonke, ukukhula kwesidingo semboni yendabuko ye-methanol engezansi kunesimo esikhulayo, futhi iphethini yokusetshenziswa kwe-methanol yasekhaya iphinde iveze isimo sentuthuko esihlukahlukene, futhi isakhiwo sokusetshenziswa singashintsha. Kodwa-ke, izinhlelo zokukhiqiza zala mandla amasha ezimbonini zendabuko ezingezansi zigxile kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili noma ekupheleni konyaka, okuzoba nokusekelwa okulinganiselwe emakethe ye-methanol ngo-2023.
Ukushaqeka kwemakethe akunakugwenywa
Ngokusho kwesakhiwo samanje sokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, uShao Huiwen, umhlaziyi omkhulu wemakethe, uthe amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol yasekhaya asevele ebhekene nomthamo othile ngokweqile, kodwa ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme isimo sezinto zokusetshenziswa ze-methanol singaqhubeka nokuthinteka, ukuthi amandla okukhiqiza i-methanol amasha angahlelwa yini ngo-2023 ngokusho kohlelo ngokusho kohlelo Ukukhiqizwa kusazobhekwa, futhi ukukhiqizwa nakho kugxilwe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, okuzoba kuhle ekwakhiweni kwemakethe ye-methanol engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023.
Ngokombono wenqubo yokukhiqiza amadivayisi amasha e-methanol aphesheya kwezilwandle, amandla okukhiqiza agxile engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Ingcindezi yokungenisa ukunikezwa ingase ibe sobala engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Uma ukungenisa okungabizi kakhulu kukhuphuka, imakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya izoqhubeka nokubhekana nomthelela wemikhiqizo engenisiwe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngo-2023, imboni yendabuko yezimboni ze-methanol kanye nezisafufusa ihlelwe ukufaka ekukhiqizweni kwamayunithi amasha, phakathi kwawo amandla amasha e-MTO ikakhulukazi ukukhiqizwa okuhlanganisiwe, uphethiloli ohlanzekile we-methanol unemakethe ekhulayo emkhakheni wamandla amasha, isidingo se-methanol kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule, kodwa izinga lokukhula lingaqhubeka nokwehla. Imakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya iyonke isesesimeni sokuphakelwa ngokweqile. Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya izokhuphuka kuqala bese izinza ngo-2023, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi kube nokulungiswa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu zamalahle aluhlaza kanye negesi yemvelo, kunzima ukuthuthukisa imakethe ye-methanol esikhathini esifushane, futhi ukushaqeka okuphelele akunakugwenywa.
Abangaphakathi embonini bathi isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka somthamo wokukhiqiza i-methanol eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo kulindeleke ukuthi sibe sebangeni eliqondile lika-3% kuya ku-4%. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokuhlanganiswa kwezimboni kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe, amathani angaphezu kwesigidi esisodwa edivayisi yokuhlanganisa i-methanol ne-olefin kuseyiyona nto eyinhloko, ikhabhoni eluhlaza kanye nezinye izinqubo ezikhulayo zizoba yisengezo. I-Methanol kuya ku-aromatics kanye ne-methanol kuya kuphethiloli nazo zizothola amathuba amasha okuthuthukiswa ngokwandiswa kwesilinganiso sezimboni, kodwa idivayisi ehlanganisiwe ezisekelayo iseyindlela yokuthuthukiswa evamile, amandla entengo azoba sezandleni zamabhizinisi amakhulu aholayo, futhi isimo sokushintshashintsha okukhulu emakethe ye-methanol kulindeleke ukuthi sithuthukiswe.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Feb-08-2023