Ngo-2022, ngaphansi kwesizinda sentengo ephezulu yamanani entengo eluhlaza kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza asekhaya emakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya, kudlule umjikelezo we- "W" Vibration ngokunwebeka okuphezulu okungaphezulu kwama-36%. Ngibheke phambili ku-2023, abangena ngaphakathi kwemboni bakholelwa ukuthi imakethe ye-methanol yalo nyaka isaqhubeka nokuhambisana nesimo se-macro kanye nomkhuba wokujikeleza imboni. Ngokulungiswa kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa ubudlelwano kanye nokulungiswa kwezindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe, kulindeleke ukuthi ukufunwa kokukhiqizwa kuzokhule kanyekanye, imakethe izoqina futhi iqinile. Kubonisa nezimpawu zokukhula kwe-slowling ukukhiqizwa kwamandla, ushintsho kwisakhiwo sabathengi, kanye nokushintshashintsha kwezimo eziningi emakethe. Ngasikhathi sinye, umthelela wokuhlinzekwa okungeniswe emakethe yasekhaya kungenzeka uboniswe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.
Izinga lokukhula kwamandla lincipha
Ngokusho kwezibalo ezivela ku-Henan Chemical Network, ngo-2022, umthamo we-Methanol wokukhiqiza wezwe wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingama-5.545, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza we-methanol omusha we-Methanol wagxiliswa eChina. Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2022, inani lezwe lokukhiqiza le-methanol lalingamathani ayizigidi ezingama-113.06, afaka ama-59% omhlaba wonke ophelele, futhi amandla okukhiqiza asebenzayo ayengamathani acishe abe yizigidi eziyi-100, ukukhuphuka konyaka we-5.7% - unyaka.
IHan Hongwei, i-Vice Mongameli yeHenan Petroleum ne-Chemic Perroleum Association, yathi ngo-2023, amandla okukhiqiza we-methanol wezwe ayaqhubeka nokukhula, kepha izinga lokukhula lizoncipha. Ngo-2023, umthamo we-methanol omusha wezwe wami ungaba ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-4,9. Ngaleso sikhathi, inani eliphelele le-methanol Production Production lizofika amathani ayi-118 million, unyaka-wenyuka ngo-4,4%. Njengamanje, idivaysi yamalahle elisanda kuphakanyiswa i-Coal -to -Methanol incishiswa kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuthaza ilitshe "kabili kwikhabhoni" okuhlosiwe kanye nezindleko eziphezulu zokutshala imali zamaphrojekthi wamakhemikhali wamalahle. Ukuthi ngabe umthamo omusha ungaguqulwa ngempumelelo ube umthamo wangempela wokukhiqiza esikhathini esizayo futhi udinga ukunaka ukuholwa kwenqubomgomo "Hlela uhlelo" lwezinhlelo ezintsha zamakhemikhali, kanye nezinguquko kwezemvelo Izinqubomgomo zezinqubomgomo zamalahle.
Ngokusho kwe-Market Front ReportBack Reportback, kusukela ngoJanuwari 29, inani lokuhweba elijwayelekile le-methanol yasekhaya likhuphuke laya ku-2,600 yuan (inani lamathani, okufanayo naphansi), kwakhuphuka njalo nge-13 yuan. %. "Umthelela wokwethulwa kwamandla amasha emakethe ungabonakala engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukuphindiselwa phansi kwentengo ye-methanol ekuqaleni konyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke." UHan Hongwei uthe.
Ukusetshenziswa Kwezakhiwo Izinguquko
Umuntu ophethe i-Zhongyuan future future methanol Project uthe ngenxa yokuvimbela nokulawulwa kobhubhane kanye nokuncipha kwe-macroeconomic buthaka, ukwakheka kwe-methanol nakho okuzayo kuzoshintsha. Phakathi kwazo, ijubane lokuthuthuka lamalahle -to -Olefins ngokusetshenziswa okungama-55% kunganciphisa, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwezimboni zendabuko ezakhiwe phansi kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule futhi.
I-Cui Huajie, umuntu ophethe ukuphathwa kwamakhemikhali kaHenan Ruiyuanxin, wathi izidingo zabakwa-Olefin zibuthakathaka kusukela ngo-2022, yize imakethe ye-methanol eluhlaza ilungiswe ukwethuka, ihlala iphakeme. Ngaphansi kwezindleko eziphakeme, amalahle -uku-coal-to -OLEFIFIFIFIFIFIFIFIFE kugcina ukulahleka kokulahleka konyaka wonke. Okuthintekile yilokhu, ukuthuthukiswa kwamalahle -to -Olef kukhombisa izimpawu zokunciphisa ijubane. Ngomsebenzi ohlanganisiwe wokucwengisisa kanye nephrojekthi ehlanganisiwe yasekhaya yenqubo eyodwa yasekhaya ngo-2022 -Shenghong Ukucolisiswa kanye nokukhiqizwa okuphelele, iphrojekthi ye-Slow Methanol Olefindol izoba ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-2.4 emcabangweni. Izinga langempela lokukhula kwezidingo zama-Olefin ku-methanol lizoqhubeka linciphise.
Ngokusho kwemenenja yeHenan Energy Group, esicini sendabuko se-methanol, inani elikhulu lamaphrojekthi we-acetic acid azokwethulwa kusuka ku-2020 kuya ku-2021 ngaphansi kokuheha inzuzo ephezulu, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza we-acetic acid ugcine ukukhuphuka konyaka Izigidi eziyi-1 zamathani eminyakeni emibili edlule. Ngo-2023, amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,2 we-acetic acid kulindeleke ukuthi angezelwe, alandelwe amathani angama-260,000 we-methane chloride, amathani angama-180,000 e-methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) namathani angama-550,000 e-N, DMF). Kuphela, ukukhula kwesidingo somkhakha wendabuko we-methanuam we-methanol kunomkhuba owandayo, futhi iphethini yokusebenzisa i-methanol yasekhaya iphinde inikeze umkhuba wokuthuthuka okuhlukahlukene, kanye nesakhiwo sokusebenzisa singashintsha. Kodwa-ke, amacebo okukhiqiza alawa mandla amasha ezimbonini zendabuko ezaphansi kwezempi agxile kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili noma ukuphela konyaka, okuzoba nokusekelwa okulinganiselwe kwemakethe ye-methanol ngo-2023.
Ukushaqeka kwemakethe akunakugwenywa
Ngokusho kokuhlinzekwa kwamanje kanye nesakhiwo sezidingo, iShao Huiwen, umhlaziyi wemakethe eliphakeme, uthe amandla okukhiqiza we-methanol asevele ahlangabezana ne-sccapacity ethile, kepha ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme ze-methanol izinto zokwakha zingaqhubeka zithintekile, noma ngabe Umthamo omusha we-methanol wokukhiqiza ungahlelwa ngo-2023 ngokusho kohlelo ngokohlelo ukukhiqizwa okusamele kubhekwe, futhi ukukhiqizwa nakho kugxilwe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, okuzohlanganiswa Yiba nomusa ekwakhekeni kwemakethe ye-methanol engxenyeni yokuqala ye-2023.
Ngokombono wenqubo yokukhiqiza yamadivayisi amasha we-methaas methanol, umthamo wokukhiqiza ugxile engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Ingcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kwamanye amazwe ingabonakala engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Uma ukulethwa okuphansi okuphansi kukhuphuka, imakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya izobhekana nomthelela wemikhiqizo engenisiwe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngo-2023, imboni yendabuko yokwenziwa kwendabuko ye-methanol kanye nezimboni ezisafufusayo zihlelelwe ukufakwa ekukhiqizweni kwamayunithi amasha, phakathi kwalo umthamo omusha we-MTO ngokukhethekile, ugesi ohlanzekile ohlanzekile unemakethe eyengeziwe emkhakheni wamandla amasha , ukufunwa kwe-methanol kulindeleke ukuthi kwandiswe, kepha izinga lokukhula lingaqhubeka nejubane. Imakethe ye-Methanol yasekhaya wonke isesesimweni se-Oversuply. Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya izovuka kuqala bese iqinisa ngo-2023, futhi amathuba okulungiswa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ayikwazi ukukhishwa. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme zegesi eluhlaza kanye negesi yemvelo, kunzima ukuthuthukisa imakethe ye-methanol esikhathini esifushane, futhi ukwethuka okuphelele akunakugwenywa.
Abangena ngaphakathi emkhakheni bathi isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka samandla weMethanol eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo kulindeleke ukuba sibe sehlu eliphansi le-3% kuya ku-4%. Ngasikhathi sinye, ngokuhlanganiswa kwezimboni kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe, amathani angaphezu kwesigidi se-methanol kudivayisi yokuhlanganisa i-OleFeFem kuseyindlela yokuhlanganisa, ikhabhoni eluhlaza kanye nezinye izinqubo ezifunwayo zizoba isengezo. I-Methanol kuya e-Aromatics ne-Methanol kuya ephepheni futhi izothola amathuba amasha entuthuko ngokwanda kwesilinganiso sezimboni, kepha idivaysi ehlanganisiwe yokusekela isesezandleni zamabhizinisi amakhulu aholayo, kanye Isimo sokushintshashintsha okukhulu emakethe ye-methanol kulindeleke ukuthi sithuthukiswe.
Isikhathi sePosi: FEB-08-2023