Isingeniso:Muva nje, izintengo zasekhaya zexylene exubile e-China zingene kwesinye isigaba sokusimama nokuqinisa, nokuguquguquka okuwububanzi obuncane kuzo zonke izifunda kanye negumbi elilinganiselwe lokuphumelela phezulu noma phansi. Kusukela ngoJulayi, uma sithatha intengo yendawo echwebeni lase-Jiangsu njengesibonelo, izingxoxo bezilokhu zizungeza ububanzi obungu-6,000-6,180 yuan/ton, kanti ukunyakaza kwentengo kwezinye izifunda nakho kukhawulelwe ku-200 yuan/ton.
Ukuntenga kwamanani kungase kubangelwe ukuhlinzekwa kwempahla kwangaphakathi okuntekenteke kanye nesidingo ngakolunye uhlangothi, kanye nokuntuleka kwesiqondiso esivela ezimakethe zangaphandle ngakolunye. Ngokombono we-dynamics yesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwasekhaya, izinsiza ezixubile zexylene zihlala ziqinile. Ngenxa yokuvalwa isikhathi eside kwefasitela le-arbitrage yokungenisa, izindawo zokugcina ezentengiselwano zibone abantu abambalwa abafika kwamanye amazwe, futhi ukunikezwa kwemikhumbi yasekhaya kuye kwehle kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhathi zangaphambili, okuholele ekwehleni okwengeziwe kwamazinga ezimpahla.
Nakuba ukunikezwa kusalokhu kubambezelekile, ukucinana kokutholakala kwexylene exubile kuqhubeke isikhathi eside. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi izintengo zexylene zihlale ziphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, umthelela osekelayo wokuqina kokunikezwa kwezintengo unciphile.
Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya bekubuthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa esikhathini esingaphambili. Ngenxa yokuthi amanani e-xylene exubile abephezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izingxenye ezinephunga elimnandi, isidingo sokuhlanganisa sehlile. Kusukela maphakathi noJuni, ukusabalala kwentengo phakathi kwekusasa le-PX kanye nezinkontileka zasekhaya ze-MX zephepha/indawo liye lehla kancane laya ku-600-700 yuan/ton, kunciphisa ukuzimisela kwezitshalo ze-PX ukuthola ixylene exutshiwe ngaphandle. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukulungiswa kwamanye amayunithi e-PX nakho kuholele ekwehleni kokusetshenziswa kwe-xylene okuxubile.
Kodwa-ke, isidingo sakamuva se-xylene esixubile sibonise izinguquko ku-tandem nokuguquguquka ekusabalaleni kwe-PX-MX. Kusukela maphakathi noJulayi, ikusasa le-PX seliphinde laqina, lanweba ukusabalala kwendawo exubile ye-xylene kanye nezinkontileka zephepha. Ekupheleni kukaJulayi, igebe lase linwetshiwe labuyela ebangeni elibanzi kakhulu lika-800-900 yuan/ton, ukubuyisela inzuzo yokuguqulwa kwenqubo emfushane ye-MX-to-PX. Lokhu kuvuselele umdlandla wezitshalo ze-PX zokuthengwa kwe-xylene exubile yangaphandle, okuhlinzeka ngosekelo lwamanani e-xylene exubile.
Nakuba amandla ekusasa le-PX enikeze ukukhuphuka kwesikhashana kumanani entengo e-xylene, ukuqaliswa kwakamuva kwamayunithi amasha njenge-Daxie Petrochemical, i-Zhenhai, ne-Yulong kulindeleke ukuthi kuqinise ukungalingani kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwasekhaya esikhathini esizayo. Nakuba uhlu lwezimpahla eziphansi ngokomlando lungase lubambezele ukunqwabelana kwengcindezi yokuhlinzeka, ukwesekwa kwesakhiwo sesikhathi esifushane ekuhlinzekweni nasekudingweni kuhlala kunjalo. Kodwa-ke, amandla akamuva emakethe yezimpahla agqugquzelwe kakhulu yisimo somnotho omkhulu, okwenza ukusimama komhlangano we-PX futures kungaqiniseki.
Ukwengeza, izinguquko efasiteleni le-Asia-America arbitrage ziqinisekisa ukunakwa. Ukusabalala kwentengo phakathi kwalezi zifunda ezimbili kuye kwancipha muva nje, futhi uma iwindi le-arbitrage livala, ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka nge-xylene exutshwe e-Asia ingakhula. Sekukonke, nakuba ukwesekwa kwesidingo sokunikezwa kwesakhiwo sesikhathi esifushane kuhlala kunamandla uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi ukusabalala kwe-PX-MX okwandayo kunikeza umfutho othile okhuphukayo, izinga lamanje lentengo le-xylene exubile—elihambisana noshintsho lwesikhathi eside ku-dynamics-demand dynamics—kukhawulela amandla okuthrenda okuqhubekayo kwe-bullish ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-05-2025