Isingeniso:Muva nje, amanani entengo ye-xylene exubile yasekhaya eShayina angene kwesinye isigaba sokungaguquguquki nokuhlanganiswa, ngokuguquguquka okulinganiselwe kuzo zonke izifunda kanye nendawo elinganiselwe yokuphumelela okuya phezulu noma okuya phansi. Kusukela ngoJulayi, ukuthatha intengo yendawo echwebeni laseJiangsu njengesibonelo, izingxoxo zizungeze uhla oluphakathi kuka-6,000-6,180 yuan/ton, kuyilapho ukunyakaza kwentengo kwezinye izifunda nakho kuvinjelwe ngaphakathi kuka-200 yuan/ton.
Ukuqina kwamanani kungabangelwa ukunikezwa kwempahla yasekhaya okubuthakathaka kanye nesidingo ngakolunye uhlangothi, kanye nokuntuleka kwesiqondiso esivela ezimakethe zangaphandle ngakolunye uhlangothi. Ngokombono we-dynamics ye-supply-demand dynamics yasekhaya, izinsiza ze-xylene ezixubile ezihlala ziqinile. Ngenxa yokuvalwa isikhathi eside kwefasitela le-arbitrage yokungenisa, izindawo zokugcina izimpahla zezentengiselwano zibone ukufika okumbalwa kokungenisa, kanti ukunikezwa kwemikhumbi yasekhaya kwehle kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhathi zangaphambilini, okuholele ekwehleni okwengeziwe kwamazinga empahla.
Nakuba ukunikezwa kusalokhu kunciphile, ukuqina kokunikezwa kwe-xylene exubile kuqhubeke isikhathi eside. Njengoba amanani e-xylene ehlale ephezulu, umphumela wokusekela wokuqina kokunikezwa emananini uye waba buthakathaka.
Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya bekubuthakathaka kakhulu esikhathini sangaphambilini. Ngenxa yokuthi amanani e-xylene exubile abe phezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izingxenye ze-aromatic, isidingo sokuxuba siye sehliswa. Kusukela maphakathi noJuni, ukusabalala kwentengo phakathi kwe-PX futures kanye nezinkontileka zasekhaya ze-MX paper/spot kuye kwehla kancane kancane kwaya ku-600-700 yuan/ton, kunciphisa ukuzimisela kwezitshalo ze-PX ukuthenga i-xylene exubile ngaphandle. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukugcinwa kwamanye amayunithi e-PX nakho kuholele ekwehleni kokusetshenziswa kwe-xylene exubile.
Kodwa-ke, isidingo sakamuva se-xylene exubile sibonise izinguquko ezihambisana nokushintshashintsha kokusabalala kwe-PX-MX. Kusukela maphakathi noJulayi, ikusasa le-PX liphinde landa, landisa ukusabalala ngokumelene nezinkontileka ze-xylene spot kanye nephepha ezixubile. Ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi, igebe lase likhule laya emuva ebangeni elibanzi kakhulu lama-yuan angu-800-900/ton, okubuyisela inzuzo yokuguqulwa kwe-MX-to-PX kwenqubo emfushane. Lokhu kuvuselele intshiseko yezitshalo ze-PX yokuthengwa kwe-xylene exubile yangaphandle, okunikeza ukwesekwa kwamanani e-xylene exubile.
Nakuba amandla e-PX futures enikeze ukukhushulwa kwesikhashana kwamanani e-xylene axubile, ukuqaliswa kwamuva kwamayunithi amasha njenge-Daxie Petrochemical, i-Zhenhai, ne-Yulong kulindeleke ukuthi kuqinise ukungalingani kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla yasekhaya esikhathini esizayo. Nakuba izinqolobane eziphansi ngokomlando zingase zinciphise ukunqwabelana kwengcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukwesekwa kwesakhiwo sesikhashana ekuhlinzekweni nasekudingweni kusalokhu kuzinzile. Kodwa-ke, amandla akamuva emakethe yezimpahla aqhutshwe kakhulu yimizwa yezomnotho omkhulu, okwenza ukusimama kokunyuka kwe-PX futures kungaqiniseki.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinguquko efasiteleni le-arbitrage lase-Asia-America zidinga ukunakwa. Ukusabalala kwentengo phakathi kwalezi zifunda ezimbili kuye kwancipha muva nje, futhi uma ifasiteleni le-arbitrage livala, ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka nge-xylene exubile e-Asia inganda. Sekukonke, ngenkathi ukwesekwa kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwesakhiwo sesikhashana esifushane kusalokhu kunamandla, futhi ukusabalala kwe-PX-MX okwandayo kunikeza umfutho okhuphukayo, izinga lamanje lentengo ye-xylene exubile—kanye nokushintsha kwesikhathi eside ku-dynamics yokufunwa kokuhlinzekwa—linciphisa amathuba okuthambekela okuqhubekayo kwesikhathi eside.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Agasti-05-2025