Kulandela imakethe yezinkomo ezinosayizi omude ngo-2021, ukuthambekela okukhulayo saqhubeka kwaze kwaba ngu-2022. Bekukuhambo olulodwa kanye nesimo sokuzinza okuphezulu izinyanga eziyi-11. Ngasekupheleni kuka-2022, inkambiso yemakethe ye-polysilicon yavela ngesikhathi soshintsho, futhi yagcina inyuke ngo-37.31%.
Ikhuphuka ngokuqhubekayo izinyanga eziyi-11
Imakethe ye-polysilicon ngo-2022 yenyuka ngo-67.61% ezinyangeni eziyi-11 zokuqala. Uma sibheka emuva emakethe yonyaka, ingahlukaniswa izigaba ezintathu. Ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala, inyuke ngohlangothi olulodwa. Yahlala iphezulu ngoSepthemba kuya kuNovemba, futhi ngo-December, yalungiswa kakhulu.
Isigaba sokuqala bekuyizinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala zika-2022. Imakethe ye-polysilicon inokugibela okukhulu okuhlangene, okunesikhathi esingu-67.8%. Ekuqaleni kuka-2022, imakethe ye-polysilicon yayidlondlobala yonke indlela ngemva kwenani elimaphakathi lama-yuan angu-176,000 (intengo yethani, efanayo ngezansi). Ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, inani lentengo lase lifinyelele ku-295,300 yuan, futhi abakhiqizi ngabanye bacaphuna ama-yuan angaphezu kuka-300,000. Ngalesi sikhathi, ukusebenza kukonke kochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic kwakuqinile, futhi izinga lokusebenza lemboni ye-silicon esezingeni eliphansi kakhulu embonini enkulu ye-silicon eyehla nomfula laqhubeka nokukhula, futhi inzuzo yemakethe yokugcina yayinkulu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngenxa yenani eliphezulu lezinto ze-silicon ezingenisiwe, umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza we-superimposed supply surface awukho kahle njengoba bekulindelekile. Abakhiqizi ngabanye bagcinwa ngokulungiswa okuhlukile, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline akuvunyelwe ukuqhubeka nokukhuphuka.
Isigaba sesibili sasisuka ngoSepthemba kuya kuNovemba 2022. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, imakethe ye-polysilicon yayizinzile izinga eliphezulu, futhi intengo evamile yagcinwa cishe ku-295,000 yuan, futhi umjikelezo wehla kancane ngo-0.11%. NgoSeptemba, ukukhiqizwa kwabakhiqizi be-polysilicon kwakusebenza, izinga lokusebenza landa kakhulu, futhi amabhizinisi okunakekela aphinde aqala ukusebenza ngokulandelana, ukunikezwa kwanda kakhulu, futhi kwacindezela imakethe. Kodwa-ke, izinto eziyisisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline kanye nesidingo zisagcina ibhalansi eqinile, futhi intengo isaqinile, futhi ihlala iphezulu.
Isigaba sesithathu sasingoDisemba 2022. Imakethe ye-polysilicon isheshe yalulama kusukela ezingeni eliphezulu lama-yuan angu-295,000 ekuqaleni kwenyanga, ngokuncipha kwanyanga zonke ngo-18.08%. Lokhu kuncipha okuphansi kakhulu kungenxa yezinga eliphezulu lokusebenza kwemboni ye-polysilicon. Abakhiqizi abakhulu abakhulu baqala wonke umugqa. Ukunikezwa kusakhuphuka uma kuqhathaniswa noNovemba 2022, futhi isivinini sokuthunyelwa kwamabhizinisi sehlile. Mayelana nesidingo, umfula ophansi ebusika ukhombisa ubuthakathaka, intengo yama-silicon wafers iphansi, futhi imakethe yokugcina nayo yehle ngasikhathi sinye. Kusukela ngomhla ka-30 Disemba 2022, intengo yemakethe ye-polysilicon emaphakathi ilungiswe yaba amayuan angama-241,700, yehle ngo-18.7% ukusuka onyakeni ophezulu wamayuan angama-297,300 ekupheleni kukaSepthemba.
Ukufuna ukushayela yonke indlela
Kuyo yonke imakethe yaminyaka yonke ye-polysilicon ngo-2022, Umhlaziyi we-Guangfa Futures uJi Yuanfei ukholelwa ukuthi ngo-2022, ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla sokufakwa kwe-photovoltaic, imakethe ye-polysilicon ibilokhu ishoda, okuholele ekwenyukeni kwamanani entengo.
U-Wang Yanqing, umhlaziyi we-CITIC Futures Futures Industrial Products, naye unombono ofanayo. Uthe imakethe ye-photovoltaic iyindawo ebaluleke kakhulu yokusetshenziswa kwe-terminal ye-polysilicon. Njengoba imboni ye-photovoltaic ingena ngokugcwele esikhathini sokufinyelela ku-inthanethi okushibhile ngo-2021, umjikelezo wokuchuma waphinda wavuleka.
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-National Energy Administration, ngo-2021, inombolo yokufakwa kwe-photovoltaic entsha yayiyi-54.88GW, ibe unyaka omkhulu kakhulu wonyaka; ngo-2022, ukuchuma okuphezulu kwemboni yasekhaya ye-photovoltaic kwaqhubeka. Umthamo wonyaka wokufakwa wonyaka wonyaka wenyuka wawuphezulu wafinyelela ku-105.83%unyaka nonyaka, okubonisa ukuqubuka okukhulu kwesidingo esibulalayo.
Ngalesi sikhathi, kuthinteke umlilo obungalindelekile endaweni ye-silicon e-Xinjiang kanye “nedolobha elisindayo” isipiliyoni saseSichuan saseSichuan ekukhiqizeni izinto ze-silicon, ukushuba kwesimo emakethe ye-polysilicon kwanda futhi kwakhuthaza ukukhuphuka kwamanani.
Iphoyinti lokuguquguquka kwamandla okukhiqiza liyavela
Kodwa-ke, ngoDisemba 2022, imakethe ye-polysilicon "isishintshile isitayela", futhi isishintshile inqubekela phambili esheshayo ye-Gao Ge yaya ekuweni, futhi imboni embonini yanquma ukuthi "i-avalanche" yemakethe ye-polysilicon yayingapheli.
"Ekuqaleni kuka-2022, umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza we-polysilicon wakhululwa ngokulandelana. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngaphansi kokuqhutshwa inzuzo ephezulu, abadlali abaningi abasha bangene emdlalweni futhi banweba abadlali abadala, futhi amandla okukhiqiza asekhaya aqhubeka nokukhula." U-Wang Yanqing uthe ngenxa yokuthi amandla amasha okukhiqiza agxile kakhulu kwikota yesine, Okukhiphayo kukhuphuke kakhulu, okuholele ekutheni imakethe ye-polysilicon ibe ne-inflection.
Kusukela ngo-2021, iqhutshwa yizidingo zomshini wokufaka i-terminal optical, futhi umthamo wasekhaya we-polysilicon we-polysilicon usuqalile ukusheshisa ukwakhiwa. Ngo-2022, izici ezinjengokuthuthukiswa kokuchuma kwemboni, isidingo esinamandla somfula, kanye nenzuzo yokukhiqiza ecebile yakhangwa inani elikhulu lemali embonini ye-polysilicon, futhi ukwakhiwa kwamaphrojekthi amasha kwaqalwa ngokulandelana, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza waqhubeka nokukhula.
Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-Baichuan Yingfu, kusukela ngoNovemba 2022, umthamo wasekhaya we-polycrystalline silicon ufinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.165, okuwukunyuka ngo-60.53% ekuqaleni konyaka. , GCL Shan 100,000 amathani/ngonyaka Ama-Granules silicon kanye ne-Tongwei Insurance Phase II amathani angu-50,000/ngonyaka.
NgoDisemba 2022, inani elikhulu le-polysilicon entsha yamandla okukhiqiza kancane kancane yafinyelela ekukhiqizeni kwayo. Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukunikezwa kwamasheya e-Xinjiang kwaqala ukuzungeza. Ukuhlinzekwa kwezimakethe ze-polysilicon kwanda kakhulu, futhi isimo sokutholakala okuqinile kanye nokungezwani kwesidingo kwakhululeka ngokushesha.
Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline lukhuphuke kakhulu, kodwa isidingo esingezansi sehlile. Selokhu kwaqedwa amalungiselelo athile esitoko ekupheleni kukaNovemba 2022, inani lokuthenga seliqale ukwehla kakhulu. Ukwengeza, isidingo esibuthakathaka ekupheleni konyaka siphinde sabangela uchungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic emazingeni ahlukene okugcina, futhi ukweqisa kwezingcezu ze-silicon kwakusobala ngokukhethekile. Amabhizinisi amaningi ahamba phambili aqongelele inani elikhulu lama-silicon wafers. Ngokuqoqwa kwempahla, ukuthengwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe zezinkampani zamafilimu e-silicon nakho kuqhubekile nokwehla, okuholele ekwehleni kwamanani entengo ye-polysilicon. Ngenyanga eyodwa nje, yehle ngo-53,300 yuan, eyaphazamiseka izinyanga eziyi-11.
Kafushane, imakethe ye-polysilicon ngo-2022 yagcina imakethe yezinkomo ende yezinyanga eziyi-11. Nakuba ngoZibandlela, ngenxa yomthamo ogxilile womthamo omusha wokukhiqiza, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kwanda, inqwaba yohlangothi lwesidingo kwaba ukukhathala. Ukwenyuka ngo-37.31% kusendaweni yesikhombisa ohlwini lwezinzuzo zemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-02-2023