Unyaka ka-2023 ungena ngaphakathi. Ngokusebenzisa kahle izinqubomgomo zokuvimbela izifo kanye nokulawula izinqubomgomo zokugcina, amandla okuqinisa ukukhula kanye nomphumela ophansi we-GDP, ukubikezela kokukhula kweminyaka eminyaka yonyaka we-GDP kuzovulwa kakhulu kulo nyaka. Njengomkhakha wensika yomnotho wezwe lonke, imboni yamakhemikhali ixhumanisa izinsiza ezahlukahlukene namandla akhuphukelani, ngenkathi ezansi komfula zihlobene ngqo nezidingo zansuku zonke zabantu. Ngo-2023, imboni yamakhemikhali kufanele icabangele ukuguquguquka kokuguquguquka kokusungula kanye nokushintshana kwe-track, manje yiziphi izindawo ezizoba yinhlokodolobha enamandla kakhudlwana? Ukuze wanelise abafundi, amasu okutshalwa kwemali amaphethiloli nezinkampani ezivikelekile ezifana neHuaxin Securities, ukuphepha okuthe xaxa, ukuphepha kweChangjiang kanye nabasizi be-China abathengisi bazokuhlelwa ngokuphelele.
Ingqungquthela yakamuva yomsebenzi wezomnotho wakamuva isho ngokusobala ukuthi imizamo kufanele yenziwe ukunwetshwa ukufunwa kwasekhaya, futhi ukulungiswa kwamuva kwenqubomgomo yokulawula iZebhulubili Lase-Epidemiy kusheshise ukululama kwemakethe yabathengi basekhaya. Ngaphansi kokulindelwe okuphelele, inani labathengisi elithile: ngo-2023, isidingo semikhiqizo ethile yamakhemikhali kulindeleke ukuthi sithole ukukhula, ukugcinwa kwamakhemikhali kwamakhemikhali, i-semiconductor kanye nemboni yezempi okusaqhubeka gcina ibhizinisi eliphakeme. Phakathi kwazo, izinto ze-semiconductor, izinto ze-photovoltaic, izinto ze-lithium ngakho-ke zikufanele ukunakwa kwabatshalizimali ikakhulukazi.
Izinto ze-semicondector: Thatha ithuba lokufakwa esikhundleni kwasekhaya ukusheshisa inqubekela phambili
Ngo-2022, ngenxa yemvelo yezomnotho yomhlaba nokuguquguquka komjikelezo wemboni kanye nomthelela ophindaphindayo wobhubhane, yonke imboni yezogesi ibhekene nengcindezi ethile yokusebenza. Kepha evamile, imboni ye-semiconductor yaseChina isakhula.
Umbiko we-Guoxin Security Research waveza ukuthi izinga lokungenisa impahla yezinto ze-semiconductor ezweni lami lalingaba ngu-10% kuphela ngo-2021, futhi lalincishwe amathuba ngokuya ngesigaba sokuceba nokuncintisana. Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imboni yesifunda yezwe lami izoqala umgwaqo wokuqamba ama-Independent Innovation. Kulindeleke ukuthi izinto zokusebenza kwasekhaya kanye nemishini zithola izinsiza kanye namathuba amaningi, futhi umjikelezo ongeyena efuywayo ulindelekile ukuba anciphise.
Eminyakeni yamuva, isidingo sezicelo ze-semiconductor kanye nezimakethe zabathengi zikhuphuke ngokuqinile. Ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa kwe-semicondector emhlabeni jikelele kufinyelele ama-dollar angama-555.9 billion aseMelika, kwandiswa ngama- US $ 45,5 billion angaphezu kuka-2020; Kulindeleke ukuthi uqhubeke nokukhula ngo-2022, futhi ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor kuzofinyelela ama- $ 601.4 billion. Kunezinhlobo eziningi zezinto zokwenziwa ze-semiconductor, kanye ezintathu eziphezulu ezimakethe zokwabelana ngama-silicon wafers, amagesi, nokubumba okukhanyayo. In addition, the market share of polishing fluid and polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, wet chemicals, and sputtering targets is 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, and 3.0%, respectively.
Umbiko wokucwaninga weGuangfa Security ukholelwa ukuthi ukusika emkhakheni wezinto zokwenziwa ze-semiconductor (amakhemikhali e-elekthronikhi) ngocwaningo lwe-endosnous kanye nokuthuthukiswa noma ukukhishwa okujwayelekile kanye nokutholwa kuyimodeli evamile yamabhizinisi amakhemikhali ukuthola uguquko eminyakeni yamuva. Ngenkathi izinkampani eziphumelelayo zokuguqula izinguquko zingathola amanani aphezulu emakethe ngenkathi ethola imboni esheshayo, sivele sakhula ngegagasi lokukhula okubili. Egatsheni lokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni ye-semiconductor yasekhaya, izinkampani ezibonakalayo ezihlobene nazo zingeniswe nethuba elihle lokubuyiselwa kwasekhaya. Ezinye izinkampani ezinamandla aqinile we-R & D namazinga weklayenti aphumelelayo, kanye nokuguqulwa okuphumelelayo komkhiqizo kanye nokuthuthuka kulindeleke ukuthi kwabelane ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo komkhakha we-semiconductor.
I-Ping Research Research imibiko yokuthi kunezici eziningi ezifana ne- "Silicon Cycle" kanye nemijikelezo ye-micondononomic, kanye nomkhakha we-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi bakhiphe phansi ngo-2023.
Umbiko wokucwaninga weNtshonalanga Securities ukholelwa ukuthi ukwanda kokulawulwa kwamanye amazwe aseMelika kuzosheshisa enye yezinto ezifuywayo zezinto zokwenziwa ze-semiconductor. Banethemba lokusebenzisa izinto ze-semiconductor, izakhi kanye nemishini ehlobene, kanye nemakethe ye-silicon carbide.
Izinto ze-Photovoltaic: Imakethe eyizigidi eziyishumi -Levevel Poe Imakethe ilinde ukudlula
Ngo-2022, ngaphansi kokukhuthaza inqubomgomo yezwe lami, inani lokufakwa okusha embonini ye-Photovoltaic yasekhaya inyuke kakhulu, futhi isidingo sefilimu ye-Photovoltaic ne-glue sanda.
I-Photovoltaic ye-glue fil fil fieldis ehlukaniswe ngezinhlobo ezimbili: I-Ethylene -Ethyl acetate Community (EVA) nePolyolofith Elastomer (Poe). I-EVA, njengezinto ezisetshenziswayo zamanje zefilimu ye-Photovoltaic glue, inesilinganiso esiphakeme sokungenisa ngaphakathi, futhi inesikhala esikhulu sokwenziwa kwasendaweni ngokuzayo. Ngasikhathi sinye, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo se-EVA emkhakheni wefilimu ye-Photovoltaic ye-glue ezweni lami ngo-2025 singafinyelela ku-45.05%.
Enye into ebonakalayo eluhlaza engavuthiwe ingafakwa ku-Photovoltaic, izimoto, izintambo, amagwebu, izinto zasendlini kanye nezinye izinkambu. Njengamanje, i-Photovoltaic Packal fil fil yendawo isibe yindawo enkulu kunazo zonke yesicelo se-poe. Ngokusho kwe- "China Photovoltaic Ukuthuthukiswa Kwezezimboni Imephu Yezemigwaqo (2021 Edition)", ingxenye yemakethe yefilimu le-powe yasekhaya ne-foam polyethylene (epe) Ifilimu le-glue ngo-2021 inyukile yaya ku-23.1%. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kokukhishwa kwezakhi ze-Photovoltaic ezweni lami kanye nokungena okuqhubekayo kwe-poe ifilimu ye-Photovoltaic, ukufunwa kwePoe ezifuywayo kukhule ngokuqinile.
Kodwa-ke, ngoba inqubo yokukhiqiza yePoe inezithiyo eziphezulu, njengamanje, izinkampani ezifuywayo azinawo amandla okudla, futhi konke ukusetshenziswa kwe-poe ezweni lami kuncike ekungeniseni. Kusukela ngo-2017, amabhizinisi asekhaya athuthukise ngokulandelana imikhiqizo yePoe. I-WANHUA CHEMICEKOK, I-Oriental Shenghong, i-Rongsheng petrochemical, amakhemikhali e-satellite namanye amabhizinisi azimele kulindeleke ukuthi afinyelele okunye esikhundleni se-poe ngokuzayo.
Izinto zebhethri ze-lithium: Ukuhanjiswa kwezinto ezine eziphambili kukhule futhi
Ngo-2022, imakethe yamandla eNtsha ye-China ne-Lithium ye-Lithium Energy Seorder yahlala phezulu, ishayela ukuthunyelwa kwezinto zebhethri le-lithium ukwandisa kakhulu. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-China Automobile Association, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Novemba 2022, ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto ezintsha zasekhaya kuqedwe izigidi eziyi-6.253, ngokulandelana, futhi ukwabelana ngemakethe kwafinyelela ku-25%.
Isikhungo Sokucwaninga Emboni Ephakeme (GGII) kulindeleke ukuthi sithengise imali engaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-6.7 yasekhaya ethengiswayo ngo-2022; Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yemoto entsha yaseChina izokudlula izigidi eziyi-923 ngo-2023. Ngo-2022, isilinganiso sokukhula kwebhethri ebhethri kulindeleke ukuthi sidlule ku-100%, izinga lokukhula kwamandla okuhanjiswa kwebhethri kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule ku-110%, kanye nezinga lokukhula Ukuhanjiswa kwebhethri ye-Energy Storage Yezamandla kudlula i-150%. Ukukhula okubalulekile kokuhanjiswa kwebhethri kwe-lithium kuqhubezele izinto ezine eziphambili ze-depy, ezingezinhle, i-diaphragm, i-electrolyte, nezinye izinto zebhethri ze-lithium ezifana ne-lithium hexfluorophosphate kanye ne-foil yethusi ngamazinga ahlukahlukene.
Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala ye-2022, i-China Lithium Electric Electrictions Fiteres yathumela amathani angama-770,000, ukukhuphuka konyaka we-62% -I-Wear; Ukuhanjiswa kwezinto ezingezinhle ze-elektrode kwakungamathani angama-540,000, ukukhuphuka kweminyaka engama-68% -unge; 55%; Ukuhanjiswa kwe-electrolyte kwakungamathani angama-330,000, ukukhuphuka kweminyaka engama-63% -Ukuzijabulisa. Kukonke, ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwebhethri le-Lithium eline enkulu eChina kwahlala kungumkhuba wokukhula.
I-GGII ibikezela ukuthi imakethe yebhethri ye-lithium yasekhaya idlula nge-1THWh ngo-2023. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwebhethri kwamandla kuzodlula okuhanjiswa nge-180gWh, okuzoqhubekisela phambili ukuhanjiswa kwamabhethri amane we-lithium ukuze uqhubeke nokwanda .
Yize amanani entengo kaLithium Ore noLithium usawoti awela ngoDisemba 2022. Kodwa-ke, emehlweni abashintshi, lokhu kungenxa yomphumela we-lithium amanani e-lithium afikanga.
Ukuphepha kwe-Huaxi kukholelwa ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-lithium usawoti ukuguquguquka okujwayelekile kwesizini ephakeme yemboni, hhayi "iphuzu le-inflection". I-Shen Wanhongyuan Securities nayo ikholelwa ukuthi ngokukhishwa okuthe xaxa kwamandla okukhiqiza akhona ngo-2023, umkhuba wenzuzo ye-Lithium Cain Chain Chain uzoqhubeka kusuka phezulu. Ukuphepha kwebhizinisi le-Zhejiang kukholelwa ukuthi ukuvunywa kwemvuselelo kwe-lithium kukhulu kunokuba kudingeke engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023.
Isikhathi sePosi: Jan-10-2023