Unyaka wezi-2023 uyangena. Ngokusetshenziswa ngokugcwele kwezinqubomgomo zokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane, amandla ezinyathelo zokusimamisa ukukhula kanye nomphumela ophansi, izikhungo zocwaningo ezimbalwa zibikezela ukuthi ukukhula kwe-GDP konyaka nonyaka kuzophindeka kakhulu kulo nyaka.Njengemboni eyinsika yomnotho wezwe, imboni yamakhemikhali ixhumanisa izinsiza ezihlukahlukene namandla enhla nomfula, kuyilapho ezansi nomfula ihlobene ngokuqondile nezidingo zansuku zonke zabantu.Ngo-2023, imboni yamakhemikhali kufanele icabangele kokubili ukushintshashintsha komjikelezo we-inventory kanye nokushintsha kwethrekhi, ngakho-ke yiziphi izindawo ezizoba i-capital tuyere enamandla kakhulu?Ukuze kwaneliseke abafundi, amasu okutshalwa kwezimali kwe-petroleum namakhemikhali ezinkampani zezibambiso ezifana ne-Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities kanye ne-China Merchants Securities azohlungwa ngokuphelele.
INgqungquthela Emaphakathi Yomsebenzi Wezomnotho yakamuva iveze ngokucacile ukuthi kufanele kwenziwe imizamo yokwandisa isidingo sasekhaya, futhi ukulungiswa kwakamuva kwenqubomgomo yokulawula ubhubhane kusheshise ukuvuselelwa kwemakethe yasekhaya yabathengi.Ngaphansi kokulindela okuphelele, ama-brokerage amaningi akholelwa ukuthi: Ngo-2023, isidingo semikhiqizo ethile yamakhemikhali kulindeleke ukuthi siphinde sikhule, futhi ipuleti elisha lempahla yamakhemikhali elihilelekile ekuthuthukiseni amandla amasha, ukugcinwa kwamandla, i-semiconductor kanye nemboni yezempi. gcina ibhizinisi eliphezulu.Phakathi kwazo, izinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor, izinto ze-photovoltaic, izinto ze-lithium nokunye kufaneleka ngokukhethekile ukunakwa kwabatshalizimali.
Izinto zokwakha zeSemiconductor: sebenzisa ithuba lokushintshwa kwasekhaya ukusheshisa inqubekelaphambili
Ngo-2022, ngenxa yesimo somnotho womhlaba kanye nokuguquguquka komjikelezo wokuchuma kwemboni kanye nomthelela ophindaphindiwe walolu bhubhane, yonke imboni yezogesi yabhekana nengcindezi ethile yokusebenza.Kodwa ngokuvamile, imboni ye-semiconductor yaseChina isakhula.
I-Guoxin Securities Research Report iveze ukuthi izinga lokwenziwa kwasendaweni kwezinto ezisetshenziswayo ezweni lami lalicishe libe yi-10% ngo-2021, futhi lalincishwe amathuba ngokwesigaba sokunotha kanye nokuncintisana.Nokho, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imboni yesekethe edidiyelwe yezwe lami izongena emgwaqeni wokuqamba okusha okuzimele.Kulindeleke ukuthi impahla yasekhaya kanye nemishini ingathola izinsiza namathuba amaningi, futhi umjikelezo ohlukile wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ube mfushane.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, isidingo sezicelo ze-semiconductor kanye nezimakethe zabathengi sikhule kancane kancane.Ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke kufinyelele kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-555.9, okuwukunyuka kwama-US $ 45.5 billion ngo-2020;kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhula ngo-2022, futhi ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor kuzofinyelela ku-US $ 601.4 billion.Kunezinhlobo eziningi zezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor, kanti ezintathu eziphezulu emakethe ama-silicon wafers, amagesi, nokubumba okulula.Ngaphezu kwalokho, isabelo semakethe sokupholisha uketshezi kanye namaphedi okupholisha, ama-reagents okunamathela e-lithography, i-lithography, amakhemikhali amanzi, nezinhloso zokuphafaza kungu-7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, no-3.0%, ngokulandelana.
I-Guangfa Securities Research Report ikholelwa ukuthi ukusika emkhakheni wezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor (amakhemikhali e-electronic) ngocwaningo olungapheli kanye nentuthuko noma ukuhlanganisa okunwetshiwe nokutholwa kuyimodeli evame kakhulu yamabhizinisi amakhemikhali ukuze afune uguquko eminyakeni yamuva nje.Nakuba izinkampani eziphumelelayo zoguquko zingathola amanani emakethe aphezulu kuyilapho zithola imboni esheshayo, singenise igagasi lokukhula okukabili.Egagasini lokuthuthuka ngokushesha kwemboni yasekhaya ye-semiconductor, izinkampani zezinto ezibonakalayo nazo zaletha ithuba elihle lokushintshwa kwasekhaya.Ezinye izinkampani ezinamandla aqinile e-R & D namazinga amaklayenti aphumelelayo, kanye nokuguqulwa okuphumelelayo komkhiqizo nokuthuthukiswa kulindeleke ukuthi zabelane ngentuthuko esheshayo yomkhakha we-semiconductor.
I-Ping An Securities Research ibika ukuthi kunezici eziningi ezifana "nomjikelezo we-silicon" kanye nemijikelezo yezomnotho omkhulu, futhi imboni ye-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ngo-2023.
I-Western Securities Research Report ikholelwa ukuthi ukwenyuka kokulawulwa kokuthekelisa kwe-US kuzosheshisa enye indlela yasekhaya yezinto ezisetshenziswa yi-semiconductor.Banethemba ngezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor, izakhi kanye nemishini ehlobene, kanye nemakethe ye-silicon carbide.
I-Photovoltaic Material: Imakethe ye-POE yezigidigidi eziyishumi ilinde ukugqashuka
Ngo-2022, ngaphansi kokukhuthazwa kwenqubomgomo yezwe lami, inani lokufakwa okusha embonini yasekhaya ye-photovoltaic landa kakhulu, futhi isidingo sefilimu ye-photovoltaic glue nayo yanda.
Ifilimu ye-Photovoltaic glue izinto zokusetshenziswa zihlukaniswe izinhlobo ezimbili: umphakathi we-ethylene -ethyl acetate (EVA) kanye ne-polyolefin elastomer (POE).I-EVA, njengezinto ezisetshenziswayo zamanje ezivamile zefilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic, inezinga eliphezulu lokuncika kokungenisa, futhi inendawo enkulu yokwenza okwasendaweni esikhathini esizayo.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo se-EVA emkhakheni wefilimu ye-photovoltaic glue ezweni lami ngo-2025 singafinyelela ku-45.05%.
Enye impahla eluhlaza i-POE ingasetshenziswa ku-photovoltaic, izimoto, izintambo, amagwebu, izinto zikagesi zasendlini kanye neminye imikhakha.Njengamanje, ifilimu yeglue yokupakisha ye-photovoltaic isibe indawo enkulu yokusetshenziswa kwe-POE.Ngokusho kwe- "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", ingxenye yemakethe yefilimu yasekhaya yeglue ye-POE nefilimu yeglue ye-foam polyethylene (EPE) ngo-2021 inyuke yafinyelela ku-23.1%.Eminyakeni yamuva, ngokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo ekuphumeni kwezingxenye ze-photovoltaic ezweni lami kanye nokungena okuqhubekayo kwe-POE kufilimu ye-glue photovoltaic, ukufunwa kwe-POE yasekhaya kuye kwanda kancane kancane.
Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokuthi inqubo yokukhiqiza i-POE inezithiyo eziphezulu, okwamanje, izinkampani zasekhaya azinawo amandla e-POE, futhi konke ukusetshenziswa kwe-POE ezweni lami kuncike ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.Kusukela ngo-2017, amabhizinisi asekhaya athuthukise imikhiqizo ye-POE ngokulandelana.I-Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry kanye namanye amabhizinisi azimele kulindeleke ukuthi azuze ukushintshwa kwe-POE yasekhaya esikhathini esizayo.
Izinto zebhethri ye-lithium: ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezine ezibalulekile kuye kwandiswa futhi
Ngo-2022, imakethe yaseChina yokugcina amandla ebhethri ye-lithium yahlala iphezulu, iqhuba ukuthunyelwa kwezinto zebhethri le-lithium kwanda kakhulu.Ngokusho kwedatha ye-China Automobile Association, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2022, ukukhiqizwa nokudayiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zasekhaya kuqede izigidi ezingu-6.253 kanye nezigidi ezingu-6.067, ngokulandelana, ukukhuphuka okuphakathi konyaka, kanti isabelo semakethe sifinyelele ku-25%.
I-High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) kulindeleke ukuthi idayise izimoto ezintsha zasekhaya ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-6.7 ngo-2022;kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yezimoto zamandla entsha yaseChina izodlula izigidi eziyisi-9 ngo-2023. Ngo-2022, izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhethri lase-China kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule u-100%, izinga lokukhula lokuthunyelwa kwebhethri lamandla kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule i-110%, kanye nezinga lokukhula. ukuthunyelwa kwebhethri ye-lithium yokugcina amandla kudlula u-150%.Ukukhula okubalulekile kokuthunyelwa kwebhethri le-lithium kuqhubekisele phambili izinto ezine eziyinhloko ze-positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte, nezinye izinto zebhethri le-lithium njenge-lithium hexfluorophosphate ne-copper foil kumazinga ahlukahlukene.
Idatha ibonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, i-China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials yathumela amathani angu-770,000, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-62% ngonyaka;ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezingezinhle ze-electrode bekungamathani angu-540,000, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-68% ngonyaka;55%;Ukuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte bekungamathani angu-330,000, okuwukunyuka ngo-63% ngonyaka.Sekukonke, ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwamabhethri e-lithium amakhulu amane e-China kwahlala kuwumkhuba wokukhula.
I-GGII ibikezela ukuthi imakethe yebhethri ye-lithium yasekhaya izodlula i-1TWh ngo-2023. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwebhethri yamandla kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule i-800GWh, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwebhethri yokugcina amandla kuzodlula i-180GWh, okuzohambisa ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwamabhethri amakhulu amane e-lithium ukuze kuqhubeke ukwanda. .
Nakuba amanani entengo ye-lithium ore kanye nosawoti we-lithium awela ngoDisemba 2022. Kodwa-ke, emehlweni abadayisi, lokhu ikakhulukazi ngenxa yomphumela we-off-season, futhi "i-inflection point" yamanani e-lithium ayikafiki.
I-Huaxi Securities ikholelwa ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-lithium kasawoti ukuguquguquka okuvamile kwenkathi ephakeme yemboni, hhayi "iphuzu le-inflection".I-Shen Wanhongyuan Securities ikholelwa nokuthi ngokukhishwa okwengeziwe kwamandla okukhiqiza izinto ezingavuthiwe ngo-2023, inkambiso yenzuzo yochungechunge lweketanga le-lithium battery industry izoqhubeka ukusuka phezulu kuye phansi.I-Zhejiang Business Securities ikholelwa ukuthi ukuvuma okuseceleni kwezinsiza ze-lithium kukhulu kunalokho obekudingeka engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-10-2023