Ngokwesimo somjikelezo omusha wenguquko yesayensi neyezobuchwepheshe kanye nokunyuka kobuzwe bomhlaba jikelele, ukuhanjiswa kwamandla amasha kuncipha, ngenkathi amasimu aqhamukayo aphansi aqhubekayo anwetshwa ngokuqhubekayo. Imikhakha ehlobene efana nezinto zokwakha ama-fluorine, amakhemikhali we-phosphorus, ama-ARAMID kanye nezinye izimboni kulindeleke ukuba aqhubeke. Kunethemba futhi ngamathemba alo wokuthuthuka.
Imboni yamakhemikhali ye-Fluorine: Isikhala semakethe sikhula njalo
Ngo-2022, ukusebenza kwezinkampani ezisohlwini ezisohlwini lwalukhanya. Ngokusho kwezibalo ezingaphelele, ezindaweni ezintathu zokuqala, inzuzo ye-Net yezinkampani ezisohlwini ezingaphezu kwe-10 zandiswa unyaka wonke -on -Etha, futhi inzuzo ethile yeNkampani ikhuphuke ngezikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-6. Ukusuka esiqandisini kuya kokuqukethwe okusha kwe-fluoride, kumabhethri amasha e-lithiorium, imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali ye-fluoride anwebekile ngokuqhubekayo isikhala sawo semakethe ngezinzuzo zazo zokusebenza ezihlukile.
I-Fluorite iyisisekelo esibaluleke kunazo zonke esibonakalayo se-fluorochemical imboni chain. I-hydrofluoric acid eyenziwe ngezinto ezingavuthiwe iyisisekelo somkhakha wamakhemikhali wesimanje. Njengomgogodla womaketi we-Fluorochemical embonini, i-Hydrofluoric acid yinto eyisisekelo eluhlaza yokwenza imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali ye-fluarine kanye nemifula. Izimboni eziphambili zokwehla kwayo zibandakanya esiqandisini.
Ngokusho kwe-T He "Montreal Protocol", ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezizukulwane ezintathu eziqandisini ezweni lami kuzoqhakambisa ezingeni lesisekelo. Umbiko we-Yangtze Security Research ukholelwa ukuthi ngemuva kokuhlukaniswa okuyisiqandisi okuyisiqandisi, amabhizinisi angahle abuyele ezingeni lokuhlinzekwa okweze ngemakethe. Isilinganiso sesiqandisi esithathu-sesiqandisi esingu-2024 sasiqandisiwe ngokusemthethweni, futhi isilinganiso esiqongweni sesiqandisi esisesibili-40 sancishiswa ngo-67,5%. Kulindeleke ukuthi alethe igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwamathani / ngonyaka we-140,000. Mayelana nokufunwa, ubulukhuni bemboni yezezakhiwo bukhona. Ngaphansi kokwenza kahle kokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane, izimboni ezinjengemishini yasekhaya zingalulama kancane kancane. Kulindelwe ukuthi izizukulwane ezintathu zefriji kulindeleke ukuthi ziguqukele kusuka phansi kwe-boom.
Isikhungo Sokucwaninga Kwezimboni ZaseChina seChina sibikezela ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwamandla amasha, izimoto ezintsha zamandla, ama-semiconductors, kanye nezimboni zezokwelapha, i-fluoride-counomer, i-agent ye-fluorine -Containe yokucisha umlilo, njll . Ukuthuthukiswa kwezinhlobo ezintsha ze-fluorine -Ubuchwepheshe obuhle bamakhemikhali obuhle buye baqhubeka nokujula. Isikhala semakethe yalezi zimboni ezansiwe ziye zandiswa ngokuqhubekayo, ezizoletha amaphuzu amasha okukhula embonini yamakhemikhali athuthukisayo.
I-China Galaxy Securities kanye nezokuphepha kwezokuphepha Kukholelwa ukuthi kulindeleke - kulindeleke ukuthi izinto zamakhemikhali kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke ukukhuphula izinga lokuzakhela indawo, nethemba ngamapuleti e-fluorite afana ne-fluoria -refrivent.
Umkhakha wamakhemikhali wePhosphorus: Ububanzi bohlelo lwe-Downstream lubanzi
Ngo-2022, othintwe izinguquko ezihlelekile -Kusizo kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla "Ukulawulwa Okumbili", umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza wemikhiqizo ye-phosphorus comiles kanye namanani aphezulu, ukubeka isisekelo sokusebenza komkhakha wamakhemikhali we-phosphorus.
I-Phosphate Ore iyinto eyisisekelo eluhlaza ebonakalayo ye-phosphate yamakhemikhali embonini. I-Downstream ifaka umanyolo we-phosphate, ukudla -grade phosphate, i-lithium iron phosphate neminye imikhiqizo. Phakathi kwazo, i-Lithium Iron Phosphate yisigaba esichuma kakhulu ku-phosphate yamakhemikhali embonini yamanje.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi wonke amathoni ayi-1 we-iron phosphate akhiqizwa amathani angama-0,5 ~ 0.65, namathani angama-0,8 we-ammonium phosphate eyodwa. Ukukhula okuphezulu kwe-lithium iron phosphate kudinga uchungechunge lwezimboni kuya ekudluliseleni phezulu kuzokhulisa isidingo se-phosphate ore emkhakheni wamandla amasha. Enqubweni yokukhiqiza yangempela, ibhethri le-1GH Lithium ye-Phosphate lidinga amathani angama-2500 we-Lithium Iron phosphate workes, ehambelana namathani ayi-1440 we-phosphate (ukugoqa, okungukuthi, i-P2O5 = 100%). Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025, isidingo se-iron phosphate sizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingama-1.914, kanye nesidingo esihambisanayo se-phosphate ore sizoba ngamathani ayi-1.11 million, accounting cishe 4.2% yesidingo sonke se-phosphate ore.
Umbiko Wokucwaninga Wezokuphepha we-Gueresen ukholelwa ukuthi izinto eziningi -Party zizokhuthaza ngokuhlangene ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwe-phosphorus yamakhemikhali emboni. Ngokombono we-Upstream, ngokwesimo sokwanda komkhawulo wokungena komkhakha ngokuzayo kanye nengcindezelo ephezulu yokuvikelwa kwemvelo, uhlangothi lwayo lokuhlinzekwa luzoqhubeka nokuqinisa, futhi izimfanelo zokuvunyelwa kwezinsizakusebenza zivelele. Ukugcwala amanani entengo yamandla akwamanye amazwe akhuphuke ukukhuthaza izindleko eziphakeme zamakhemikhali we-phosphorus phesheya, kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko zamabhizinisi afanele asekhaya avele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inhlekelele yokusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke kanye nomjikelezo wokuchuma kwezolimo kuzothuthukisa isidingo esiphezulu somanyolo we-phosphate; Ukukhula okuqhumayo kwamabhethri we-iron phosphate nakho kuhlinzeka ngokwanda okubalulekile okukhuphukayo kwe-phosphate ore.
I-Capital Securities yathi imbangela yomjikelezo omusha wokunyuka kwamandla emali yomhlaba wonke kungumjikelezo wamandla omjikelezo, kubandakanya izindleko ezinganele ezinganele eminyakeni engu-5-10 edlule zemithombo yamaminerali, kubandakanya nokuntuleka kwemali ekhokhwayo kwangaphambilini ngo-5-10 Iminyaka, futhi ukukhishwa komthamo omusha kuzothatha isikhathi eside. Ukungezwani konyaka wePhosphorus Ore Supply kunzima ukunciphisa.
Ukuphepha komthombo ovulekile bakholelwa ukuthi ithrekhi yamandla entsha iqhubeke nokuchuma okuphezulu futhi ibinethemba ngezinto eziphakeme ezifana namakhemikhali we-phosphorus isikhathi eside.
-Ngahambi kahle:Ukusungula ukufeza ibhizinisi elikhuphukayo
Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni yolwazi, ama-ARAMID adonsele ukunakwa okuvela emakethe yezimali.
I-ARAMID fiber ingenye yemicu emithathu ephezulu ye-informance emhlabeni. Kufakwa embonini yezwe esheshayo yezwe futhi futhi kungokwesisekelo esiphakeme esiphakeme sokusekelwa okude kwezwe. Ngo-Ephreli 2022, uMnyango Wezimboni nobuchwepheshe bolwazi kanye neKhomishini Yezokuthuthukiswa Kwezizwe kanye neKhomishini Yezokubuyiselwa Kwezokuthuthukiswa Kwamakhomishini okuhlangene ukuthi kuhlongozwe ukuthi kuyadingeka ukuthuthukisa izinga lokukhiqizwa okuphezulu kwe-fiber futhi sekwesekele ukusetshenziswa kwenkambu ephezulu kakhulu.
I-ARAMID inezindlela ezimbili ezihlelekile ze-ARAMID ne-medium, futhi ezansi eziphambili zifaka izimboni ze-fiber fiber cable. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi ngo-2021, usayizi wemakethe we-Global Aramid kwakungu- US $ 3.9 billion, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kwandiswe ku-US $ 6.3 billion ngo-2026, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esingu-9.7%.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, imboni ye-China ye-fiber cable ye-Optical ithuthukise ngokushesha futhi iye yagxumela endaweni yokuqala yomhlaba. Ngokusho kwezibalo ezivela eMnyangweni Wezimboni kanye nobuchwepheshe bolwazi, ubude bentambo yekhebula likazwelonke ngo-2021 bufinyelele kumakhilomitha angama-54.88 million, kanye nesidingo semikhiqizo ephezulu ye-aramid sasiseduze namathani angama-4,000, kwawo angama-90% asathembela kuwo Ngenisa. Njengengxenye yokuqala ka-2022, ubude benkelo yomugqa wekhebula likazwelonke bafinyelela amakhilomitha ayizigidi ezingama-57.91, ukukhuphuka ngo-8.2% unyaka -..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
I-Yangtze Securities, Ukuphepha kwe-Huaxin, kanye nokuphepha kwe-Guaosen Kukholelwa ukuthi ngokuya ngesicelo, amazinga emishini yokuzithandela phakathi kwe-ARAMID azothuthuka kancane kancane, futhi isidingo sama-ARAMID asensimini ye-Optical Communication and Rubber sizohlala siqinile . Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo semakethe se-Lithium -Electroderrodemida Market sibanzi. Ngokusheshisa kwezinye izindlela ezifuywayo ze-ARAMID, izinga lokuhlelwa komphakathi esikhathini esizayo kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke kakhulu, futhi amasheya womkhakha afanelekile afanele ukunakwa.
Isikhathi sePosi: Jan-10-2023