Emongweni womjikelezo omusha wenguquko yesayensi nezobuchwepheshe kanye nokukhula kobuzwe bomhlaba wonke, ukuhlinzekwa kwamandla amasha kuye kwehla, kuyilapho amasimu asafufusa eqhubeka nokukhula. Imikhakha ehlobene nezinto ezifana nezinto ze-fluorine, amakhemikhali e-phosphorus, i-aramid nezinye izimboni kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke. Iphinde ibe nethemba ngamathuba ayo entuthuko.
Imboni yamakhemikhali e-fluorine: Isikhala semakethe sikhula njalo
Ngo-2022, ukusebenza kwezinkampani ezisohlwini lwe-fluorochemical kwakugqamile. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele, kumakota amathathu okuqala, inzuzo eseleyo yezinkampani ezingaphezu kwe-10 ezisohlwini lwe-fluorochemical yanda unyaka nonyaka, kanti inzuzo eseleyo yezinye izinkampani yanda ngaphezu kwezikhathi ezi-6 ngonyaka. Kusukela esiqandisini kuya ezintweni ezintsha ze-fluoride, kuya kumabhethri amasha e-lithium yamandla, imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali e-fluoride iye yandisa njalo indawo yayo yemakethe ngezinzuzo zayo zokusebenza ezihlukile.
I-Fluorite iyinto eluhlaza ebaluleke kakhulu ngaphambili kweketanga lemboni ye-fluorochemical. I-hydrofluoric acid eyenziwe ngezinto zokusetshenziswa iyisisekelo semboni yamakhemikhali yesimanje ye-fluorous. Njengengqikithi yeketanga lonke lemboni ye-fluorochemical, i-hydrofluoric acid iyinto eluhlaza eyisisekelo yokwenza imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali ye-fluorine ephakathi nendawo kanye nephansi. Izimboni eziyinhloko zale ketanga zihlanganisa i-refrigerant.
Ngokusho kwe-“Montreal Protocol”, ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa nokusetshenziswa kwezizukulwane ezintathu zeziqandisi ezweni lami kuzoma ezingeni lokuqala. I-Yangtze Securities Research Report ikholelwa ukuthi ngemva kokuxabana kwezabelo zeziqandisi zezizukulwane ezintathu, amabhizinisi angabuyela ezingeni lokunikezwa eligxile kakhulu emakethe. Isabelo sesiqandisi sezizukulwane ezintathu ngo-2024 samiswa ngokusemthethweni, kanti isabelo esihlanganisiwe sesiqandisi sesizukulwane sesibili ngo-2025 sancishiswa ngo-67.5%. Kulindeleke ukuthi kulethe igebe lokunikezwa kwamathani angu-140,000 ngonyaka. Ngokuphathelene nesidingo, ukuqina kwemboni yezindlu kusakhona. Ngaphansi kokwenziwa ngcono kokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane, izimboni ezifana nemishini yasekhaya zingase zilulame kancane kancane. Kulindeleke ukuthi izizukulwane ezintathu zesiqandisi kulindeleke ukuthi zibuyele emuva kusukela phansi ekukhuleni.
I-China Business Industry Research Institute ibikezela ukuthi ngentuthuko esheshayo yamandla amasha, izimoto zamandla amasha, ama-semiconductor, ama-electronics, kanye nezimboni zezokwelapha, ama-intermediate aqukethe i-fluorine, i-fluoride monomer ekhethekile, i-fluoride coolant, uhlobo olusha lwe-ejenti yokucima umlilo equkethe i-fluorine, njll. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezinhlobo ezintsha zobuchwepheshe bamakhemikhali obuhle obuqukethe i-fluorine kuqhubekile nokujula. Isikhala semakethe salezi zimboni ezingezansi siyaqhubeka nokwandiswa, okuzoletha amaphuzu amasha okukhula embonini yamakhemikhali e-fluorine.
I-China Galaxy Securities kanye ne-Guosen Securities zikholelwa ukuthi izinto zamakhemikhali ezisezingeni eliphezulu kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke nokwandisa izinga lokufakwa kwamakhemikhali endaweni, zinethemba ngamapuleti e-fluorite njenge-fluorite-refrigerant.
Imboni yamakhemikhali e-phosphorus: Ububanzi bokusetshenziswa komfula buyandiswa
Ngo-2022, ethintwe izinguquko zesakhiwo ohlangothini lokuphakelwa kanye "nokulawulwa okubili" kokusetshenziswa kwamandla, amandla amasha okukhiqiza imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali e-phosphorus anomthamo wokukhiqiza olinganiselwe kanye namanani aphezulu, okubeka isisekelo sokusebenza komkhakha wamakhemikhali e-phosphorus.
I-phosphate ore iwuhlobo oluyisisekelo lweketanga lemboni yamakhemikhali e-phosphate. Ezansi zihlanganisa umanyolo we-phosphate, i-phosphate yezinga lokudla, i-lithium iron phosphate neminye imikhiqizo. Phakathi kwazo, i-lithium iron phosphate iyisigaba esichuma kakhulu oketanga lemboni yamakhemikhali e-phosphate yamanje.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi ithani ngalinye eli-1 le-iron phosphate likhiqizwa ngamathani angu-0.5 ~ 0.65, kanye namathani angu-0.8 e-ammonium phosphate eyodwa. Ukukhula okusheshayo kwesidingo se-lithium iron phosphate ochungechungeni lwezimboni kuya ekudlulisweni okuphezulu kuzokhulisa isidingo se-phosphate ore emkhakheni wamandla amasha. Enqubweni yokukhiqiza yangempela, ibhethri le-1gWh lithium iron phosphate lidinga amathani angu-2500 ezinto zokwakha i-lithium iron phosphate, ezihambisana namathani angu-1440 e-phosphate (ukugoqwa, okungukuthi, i-P2O5 = 100%). Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025, isidingo se-iron phosphate sizofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.914, kanti isidingo esifanayo se-phosphate ore sizoba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.11, okubalwa cishe u-4.2% wesidingo sonke se-phosphate ore.
Umbiko Wocwaningo Lwe-Guosen Securities ukholelwa ukuthi izici eziningi zizokhuthaza ngokubambisana ukuchuma okuphezulu okuqhubekayo kochungechunge lwemboni yamakhemikhali e-phosphorus. Ngokombono we-upstream, ngokwesimo sokwanda komkhawulo wokungena kwemboni esikhathini esizayo kanye nokucindezela okuphezulu kokuvikelwa kwemvelo, uhlangothi lwayo lokuhlinzeka luzoqhubeka nokuqina, futhi izici zokushoda kwezinsiza ziyabonakala. Amanani amandla angaphandle ahlukene akhuphukile ukukhuthaza izindleko eziphezulu zamakhemikhali e-phosphorus kwamanye amazwe, futhi inzuzo yezindleko zamabhizinisi asekhaya afanele ivele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkinga yomhlaba wonke yokusanhlamvu kanye nomjikelezo wokuchuma kwezolimo kuzokhuthaza isidingo esiphezulu somanyolo we-phosphate; ukukhula okukhulu kwamabhethri e-iron phosphate nakho kunikeza ukwanda okubalulekile kwesidingo se-phosphate ore.
I-Capital Securities ithe imbangela eyinhloko yomjikelezo omusha wokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke umjikelezo wamandla okukhiqiza, okuhlanganisa nokusetshenziswa kwemali okungenele eminyakeni emi-5-10 edlule yezinsizakusebenza zezimbiwa, okuhlanganisa nokuntuleka kokusetshenziswa kwemali eminyakeni emi-5-10 edlule, kanye nokukhululwa kwamandla amasha kuzothatha isikhathi eside. Ukucindezeleka kokutholakala kwe-phosphorus ore yonyaka kunzima ukukuqeda.
Izibambiso zomthombo ovulekile zikholelwa ukuthi indlela entsha yamandla iqhubekile nokuchuma okukhulu futhi ibilokhu inethemba ngezinto ezisezingeni eliphezulu ezifana namakhemikhali e-phosphorus isikhathi eside.
I-Aramid：Ukusungula izinto ezintsha ukuze kufezwe ibhizinisi elikhula kancane kancane
Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni yolwazi, i-aramid iye yadonsa ukunaka okukhulu emakethe yezimali.
I-Aramid fiber ingenye yezinhlobo ezintathu ze-fiber ezisebenza kahle kakhulu emhlabeni. Ifakiwe embonini yezwe ekhulayo yamasu futhi iyinto esezingeni eliphezulu yokusekela izwe isikhathi eside. Ngo-Ephreli 2022, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi kanye neKhomishini Yentuthuko Nokuguqulwa Kazwelonke baphakamise ngokubambisana ukuthi kuyadingeka ukuthuthukisa izinga lokukhiqizwa kwe-fiber ezisebenza kahle kakhulu nokusekela ukusetshenziswa kwe-aramid ensimini yezinga eliphezulu.
I-aramid inezinhlobo ezimbili ezihlelekile ze-aramid kanye ne-medium, kanti ingxenye eyinhloko engezansi ihlanganisa izimboni zekhebula le-fiber fiber. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi ngo-2021, usayizi wemakethe ye-aramid yomhlaba wonke wawuyi-US $ 3.9 billion, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke ibe yi-US $ 6.3 billion ngo-2026, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe esingu-9.7%.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, imboni yezintambo ze-optical fiber yaseShayina ithuthuke ngokushesha futhi ikhuphukele endaweni yokuqala emhlabeni. Ngokwezibalo ezivela kuMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, ubude obuphelele bomugqa wezintambo ze-optical kazwelonke ngo-2021 bufinyelele kumakhilomitha ayizigidi ezingu-54.88, kanti isidingo semikhiqizo ye-aramid evelele sasicishe sibe ngamathani angu-4,000, lapho ama-90% awo esathembele ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe. Kusukela engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, ubude obuphelele bomugqa wezintambo ze-optical kazwelonke bufinyelele kumakhilomitha ayizigidi ezingu-57.91, ukwanda okungu-8.2% ngonyaka.
I-Yangtze Securities, i-Huaxin Securities, kanye ne-Guosen Securities zikholelwa ukuthi maqondana nokusetshenziswa, amazinga emishini yokuzivikela ephakathi kwe-aramid azothuthuka kancane kancane, futhi isidingo se-aramid emkhakheni wokuxhumana kwe-optical kanye nerabha sizohlala siqinile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo semakethe yemakethe yokumboza i-lithium-electrodermilida sibanzi. Ngokusheshiswa kwezindlela zasekhaya ze-aramid, izinga lokufakwa kwempahla ekhaya esikhathini esizayo kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke kakhulu, futhi amasheya omkhakha ofanele afanele ukunakwa.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Jan-10-2023