Imakethe ye-Methanol Inyakaziswa Yisiphithiphithi Sezendawo, Amaketanga Omhlaba Wonke Abhekene Nokuphindaphindwa

Imakethe ye-methanol yomhlaba wonke ka-2026 ithintwe kakhulu yizingxabano zezombusazwe. Ukuphazamiseka kokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eStrait of Hormuz kuthinte imithombo yokuphakelwa kwempahla eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kwashintsha imizila yokuhweba yomhlaba wonke futhi kwabangela ukuguquguquka okukhulu kuzo zonke izintambo zamakhemikhali zamandla, kanti izimakethe ezisebenzisa izimpahla zase-Asia zizwa ingcindezi yokuphakelwa kakhulu. Umthamo we-methanol womhlaba wonke udlula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-180 ngonyaka, kodwa amazinga okusebenza ahlala engu-72 75% kuphela. Izitshalo zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNyakatho Melika zigcina ukusetshenziswa okuphezulu ngenxa yesitokwe segesi yemvelo esishibhile, kuyilapho amayunithi amalahle aseNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia kuya kuma-methanol ehlushwa ingcindezi ngenxa yemikhawulo yezindleko zekhabhoni. Ukwehluka kwesifunda kwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukungqubuzana kwemakethe.

IMpumalanga Ephakathi isebenza njengesikhungo esibaluleke kakhulu sokuthumela i-methanol emhlabeni. Cishe u-70% wokungeniswa kwe-methanol eShayina kuvela ePersian Gulf, lapho izitshalo ze-methanol ezisekelwe kugesi wemvelo e-Iran, eSaudi Arabia nase-Oman zibusa khona izitayela zemakethe yomhlaba wonke. Ukungezwani kwesifunda okuphindaphindiwe ngo-2026 kwaphazamisa ukuhamba kwemikhumbi, kwaphoqa inani elikhulu lemikhumbi yabathengisi ukuthi ishintshe indlela. Amayunithi amaningi e-methanol eMpumalanga Ephakathi anciphise umkhiqizo noma avalwe. Ukukhiqizwa kwamanye amazwe okungewona amaShayina kwehle ngo-17.17% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala. Imithwalo eminingi eya e-Asia yabhekana nokubambezeleka kokuthunyelwa, ukufika kwechweba laseShayina kwehle ngokulandelana, izinto ezisetshenziswa emachwebeni zazilokhu zehla, amanani echweba enyuka ngokushesha, futhi ikusasa likhuphuke ngokuphindaphindiwe izikhathi eziningi.

I-Demand Dynamics

Ngokuphathelene nesidingo, i-methanol kuya ku-olefin (MTO) isalokhu iyisigaba esikhulu sokusetshenziswa emhlabeni jikelele, ikhiqiza u-38.5% womthamo ophelele njengomthombo wezinto zokusetshenziswa zepulasitiki nama-resin. Ukukhishwa kwe-formaldehyde ne-acetic acid yendabuko kugcina isidingo esiqinile. I-methanol eluhlaza ivela njengenjini entsha yokukhula. Ukuthengiswa kukaphethiloli wasolwandle kuyashesha, njengoba ukulethwa kukaphethiloli we-methanol emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.2 ngo-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-31% unyaka nonyaka. Isidingo se-methanol eluhlaza e-EU sikhuphuka ngo-47%. Ama-oda e-methanol e-carbon ephansi isikhathi eside ayanda; noma kunjalo imijikelezo emide yokwakha amandla aluhlaza ayikwazi ukuqeda ukushoda kokunikezwa kwendabuko kwesikhathi esifushane.

Ukubuka Konke Kwemakethe YaseShayina

Ezweni laseShayina ibona iphethini ehlukile "yokuqina kwempahla yasekhaya kwamanye amazwe". Ukuncipha kwempahla yokungenisa impahla kwashukumisela amalahle endawo ezitshalweni ze-methanol ukuze kukhushulwe amazinga okusebenza ukuze kulungiswe ingxenye yegebe lokunikezwa kwempahla. Kodwa-ke isikhala samandla amasha endawo sinqunyelwe. Izindleko zamalahle eziguquguqukayo zinciphisa imingcele yamabhizinisi, izinto ezisetshenziswayo zehla ngokushesha zaya emazingeni aphansi. Imakethe ifaka ukunikezwa kwempahla okuncishisiwe kanye nokungabizi okulinganiselwe, okuholela ekushintsheni kwamanani aphezulu phakathi kwezimpi ezinzima zamabhere ezinkunzi.

Umbono Wesikhathi Esizayo

Amaphethini okuhweba kwesikhathi eside ayashintsha. Abathengi base-Asia bahlukanisa imithombo yokuthenga ukuze banciphise ukuthembela kubahlinzeki ababodwa baseMpumalanga Ephakathi, okwandisa amasheya okuhweba ezimpahla zaseMelika nezaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Ochwepheshe bemboni baxwayisa ngokuthi amaphrimiyamu aqhutshwa yizwe aphethe ukungaqiniseki okuphezulu; amanani angase alungise uma izimo zokuthumela sezivamile. Esikhathini esiphakathi kuya kweside, amafutha e-methanol aluhlaza kanye nophethiloli wasolwandle azovula isidingo esisha, kodwa izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa, izindleko zekhabhoni kanye nezindleko zokuthutha olwandle zizoqhubeka nokwakha ukuhweba kwe-methanol. Abathengi bomhlaba wonke badinga ukwakha izintambo zokuthenga ezahlukahlukene nezimelana nezingozi.