Unyaka ka-2023 uyangena. Ngokuthuthukiswa kwezinqubomgomo zokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane, amandla ezinyathelo zokuzinzisa ukukhula kanye nomphumela ophansi wesisekelo, izikhungo eziningana zocwaningo zibikezela ukuthi ukukhula kwe-GDP yaseShayina unyaka nonyaka kuzokhuphuka kakhulu kulo nyaka. Njengemboni eyinhloko yomnotho wezwe, imboni yamakhemikhali ixhumanisa izinsizakusebenza ezahlukene kanye namandla phezulu, kuyilapho phansi kuhlobene ngqo nezidingo zansuku zonke zabantu. Ngo-2023, imboni yamakhemikhali kufanele icabangele kokubili ukuguquguquka komjikelezo wempahla kanye nokushintshana kwethrekhi, ngakho-ke yiziphi izindawo ezizoba yi-tuyere yenhloko-dolobha enamandla kakhulu? Ukuze kwaneliswe abafundi, amasu okutshala imali kaphethiloli kanye namakhemikhali ezinkampani zezibambiso ezifana ne-Huaxin Securities, i-New Century Securities, i-Changjiang Securities kanye ne-China Merchants Securities azohlelwa ngokuphelele.
Ingqungquthela Yomsebenzi Wezomnotho Ephakathi yakamuva iveze ngokusobala ukuthi kufanele kwenziwe imizamo yokwandisa isidingo sasekhaya, futhi ukulungiswa kwakamuva kwenqubomgomo yokulawula ubhubhane kusheshise ukululama kwemakethe yabathengi basekhaya. Ngaphansi kokulindela okuphelele, izinkampani eziningi zokuhweba zikholelwa ukuthi: Ngo-2023, isidingo semikhiqizo ethile yamakhemikhali kulindeleke ukuthi siphinde sikhule, futhi ipuleti lezinto zamakhemikhali ezintsha ezihilelekile ekuthuthukisweni kwamandla amasha, isitoreji samandla, imboni ye-semiconductor kanye neyamasosha izoqhubeka nokugcina ibhizinisi liphezulu. Phakathi kwazo, izinto ze-semiconductor, izinto ze-photovoltaic, izinto ze-lithium nokunye kufaneleke kakhulu ukunakwa ngabatshalizimali.
Izinto zokushintshanisa izinto ze-semiconductor: sebenzisa ithuba lokushintshaniswa kwasekhaya ukuze usheshise intuthuko
Ngo-2022, ngenxa yesimo somnotho womhlaba wonke kanye nokushintshashintsha komjikelezo wokuchuma kwemboni kanye nomthelela ophindaphindayo walolu bhubhane, yonke imboni ye-elekthronikhi yabhekana nengcindezi ethile yokusebenza. Kodwa ngokuvamile, imboni ye-semiconductor yaseShayina isakhula.
Umbiko Wocwaningo Lwezokuphepha ze-Guoxin ukhombe ukuthi izinga lokufakwa kwezinto ze-semiconductor ezweni lami lalingu-10% kuphela ngo-2021, futhi lalincishisiwe ngokwezinga lokuceba kanye nokuncintisana. Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imboni yesifunda esihlanganisiwe sezwe lami izoqala indlela yokusungula izinto ezintsha ezizimele. Kulindeleke ukuthi izinto zasekhaya kanye nemishini kungathola izinsiza kanye namathuba engeziwe, futhi umjikelezo wokushintshana wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyele.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, isidingo sezicelo ze-semiconductor kanye nezimakethe zabathengi sikhule kancane kancane. Ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-555.9 billion US dollars, okuwukwenyuka kwama-US $ 45.5 billion ngaphezulu kuka-2020; kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokukhula ngo-2022, kanti ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor kuzofinyelela ku-US $ 601.4 billion. Kunezinhlobo eziningi zezinto ze-semiconductor, kanti ezintathu eziphezulu emakethe yi-silicon wafers, amagesi, kanye nokubumba okukhanyayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isabelo semakethe sama-polishing fluid kanye nama-polishing pads, ama-lithography adhesive reagents, i-lithography, amakhemikhali amanzi, kanye nezinhloso zokuphalaza yi-7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, kanye no-3.0%, ngokulandelana.
Umbiko Wocwaningo Lwezokuphepha zeGuangfa ukholelwa ukuthi ukusika emkhakheni wezinto ze-semiconductor (amakhemikhali kagesi) ngocwaningo lwemvelo kanye nentuthuko noma ukuhlanganiswa nokuthengwa kwesandiso kuyimodeli evamile kakhulu yamabhizinisi amakhemikhali ukufuna ushintsho eminyakeni yamuva nje. Ngenkathi izinkampani zokuguqula eziphumelelayo zingathola amanani aphezulu emakethe ngenkathi zithola imboni esheshayo, singenise igagasi lokukhula okuphindwe kabili. Egagasini lokuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwemboni ye-semiconductor yasekhaya, izinkampani zezinto ezihlobene nazo zingenise ithuba elihle lokufakwa esikhundleni kwekhaya. Ezinye izinkampani ezinamandla ocwaningo nokuthuthukiswa okuqinile kanye namazinga amaklayenti aphumelelayo, kanye nokuguqulwa nokuthuthukiswa komkhiqizo okuphumelelayo kulindeleke ukuthi zihlanganyele ekuthuthukisweni okusheshayo kwemboni ye-semiconductor.
I-Ping An Securities Research ibika ukuthi kunezici eziningi ezifana "nomjikelezo we-silicon" kanye nemijikelezo yezomnotho omkhulu, futhi imboni ye-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ngo-2023.
Umbiko Wocwaningo Lwezokuphepha ZaseNtshonalanga ukholelwa ukuthi ukwanda kokulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe e-US kuzosheshisa okunye okuhlukile kwasekhaya kwezinto ze-semiconductor. Banethemba ngezinto ze-semiconductor, izingxenye kanye nemishini ehlobene, kanye nemakethe ye-silicon carbide.
Izinto ze-Photovoltaic: Imakethe ye-POE esezingeni lezigidi eziyishumi ilinde ukugqashuka
Ngo-2022, ngaphansi kokukhuthazwa kwenqubomgomo yezwe lami, inani lokufakwa okusha embonini yasekhaya ye-photovoltaic landa kakhulu, futhi isidingo sefilimu yokunamathisela ye-photovoltaic naso sanda.
Izinto zokusetshenziswa zefilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic zihlukaniswe ngezinhlobo ezimbili: umphakathi we-ethylene-ethyl acetate (EVA) kanye ne-polyolefin elastomer (POE). I-EVA, njengezinto zokusetshenziswa ezisetshenziswa kakhulu zefilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic, incike kakhulu ekungenisweni kwempahla, futhi inendawo enkulu yokwakha indawo esikhathini esizayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo se-EVA emkhakheni wefilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic ezweni lakithi ngo-2025 singafinyelela ku-45.05%.
Enye into eluhlaza esetshenziswa kakhulu i-POE ingasetshenziswa kuma-photovoltaic, ezimotweni, ezintanjeni, ezintanjeni, ezintweni zasekhaya nakwezinye izindawo. Njengamanje, ifilimu yeglue yokufaka i-photovoltaic isibe yindawo enkulu kakhulu yokusetshenziswa kwe-POE. Ngokusho kwe-"China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", ingxenye yemakethe yefilimu yeglue yasekhaya ye-POE kanye nefilimu yeglue ye-foam polyethylene (EPE) ngo-2021 ikhuphuke yafika ku-23.1%. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo komkhiqizo wezingxenye ze-photovoltaic ezweni lakithi kanye nokungena okuqhubekayo kwe-POE kufilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic, isidingo se-POE sasekhaya sikhule kancane kancane.
Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokuthi inqubo yokukhiqiza i-POE inezithiyo eziphakeme, okwamanje, izinkampani zasekhaya azinawo amandla e-POE, futhi konke ukusetshenziswa kwe-POE ezweni lami kuncike ekungenisweni kwempahla. Kusukela ngo-2017, amabhizinisi asekhaya athuthukise imikhiqizo ye-POE ngokulandelana. I-Wanhua Chemical, i-Oriental Shenghong, i-Rongsheng Petrochemical, i-Satellite Chemistry kanye namanye amabhizinisi azimele kulindeleke ukuthi athole indawo ye-POE yasekhaya esikhathini esizayo.
Izinto zebhethri le-lithium: ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezine eziyinhloko kuye kwanda kakhulu
Ngo-2022, imakethe yokugcina amandla ezimoto ezintsha zamandla kanye nebhethri le-lithium yaseShayina yahlala iphezulu, okwenza ukuthunyelwa kwezinto zebhethri le-lithium kwanda kakhulu. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-China Automobile Association, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2022, ukukhiqizwa nokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla zasekhaya kwaqeda izigidi ezingu-6.253 kanye nezigidi ezingu-6.067, ngokulandelana, okuwukwenyuka okumaphakathi konyaka nonyaka, kanti isabelo semakethe safinyelela ku-25%.
I-High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) kulindeleke ukuthi ithengise izimoto ezintsha zamandla zasekhaya ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-6.7 ngo-2022; kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yezimoto ezintsha zamandla yaseShayina izodlula izigidi ezingu-9 ngo-2023. Ngo-2022, izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhethri le-lithium eShayina kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule u-100%, izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhethri lamandla kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule u-110%, kanti izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhethri le-lithium lokugcina amandla lidlula u-150%. Ukukhula okuphawulekayo kokuthunyelwa kwebhethri le-lithium kuye kwaqhuba izinto ezine eziyinhloko zezinto ezinhle, ezimbi, ze-diaphragm, ze-electrolyte, nezinye izinto zebhethri le-lithium ezifana ne-lithium hexfluorophosphate kanye ne-copper foil ngamazinga ahlukahlukene.
Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, i-China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials yathumela amathani angu-770,000, ukwanda ngo-62% ngonyaka; ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ze-electrode ezingezinhle kwakungamathani angu-540,000, ukwanda ngo-68% ngonyaka; 55%; ukuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte kwakungamathani angu-330,000, ukwanda ngo-63% ngonyaka. Sekukonke, ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwebhethri le-lithium ezine ezinkulu eShayina kwahlala kuyinkambiso yokukhula.
I-GGII ibikezela ukuthi imakethe yebhethri le-lithium yasekhaya izodlula i-1TWh ngo-2023. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwebhethri lamandla kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule i-800GWh, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwebhethri lokugcina amandla kuzodlula i-180GWh, okuzokwenza ukuthi ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwamabhethri amane amakhulu e-lithium kukhule kakhulu.
Nakuba amanani e-lithium ore kanye nosawoti we-lithium ehlile ngoDisemba 2022. Kodwa-ke, emehlweni abadayisi, lokhu kungenxa yomphumela we-off-season, futhi "iphuzu lokushintshashintsha" kwamanani e-lithium alikafiki.
I-Huaxi Securities ikholelwa ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwentengo kasawoti we-lithium kuwukuguquguquka okuvamile kwesizini ephezulu yomkhakha, hhayi "iphuzu lokushintshashintsha". I-Shen Wanhongyuan Securities ikholelwa nokuthi ngokukhululwa okuqhubekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza izinto zokusetshenziswa ngo-2023, ukuthambekela kwenzuzo yochungechunge lweketanga lemboni yebhethri le-lithium kuzoqhubeka kusukela phezulu kuya phansi. I-Zhejiang Business Securities ikholelwa ukuthi ukuvuma okuncane kwezinsiza ze-lithium kukhulu kunalokho okudingekayo engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Jan-10-2023