Nakuba ingxenye yesibili ka-2022, amakhemikhali amandla nezinye izinto zingene esigabeni sokulungiswa, kodwa abahlaziyi beGoldman Sachs embikweni wakamuva basagcizelela ukuthi izici eziyisisekelo ezinquma ukwanda kwamakhemikhali amandla nezinye izinto azikashintshi, zisazoletha imbuyiselo ekhazimulayo ngonyaka ozayo.
NgoLwesibili, uJeff Currie, umqondisi weGoldman Sachs Commodity Research, kanye noSamantha Dart, umqondisi wocwaningo lwegesi yemvelo, balindele ukuthi izinga lokulinganisa lezimpahla ezinkulu ezifana nemboni yamakhemikhali lizolinganiswa, okusho ukuthi i-S&P GSCI Total Return Index ingase ithole amanye ama-43% ngo-2023 ngemuva kwenzuzo engaphezulu ngo-20% kulo nyaka.
(Inkomba Yezimpahla Eziphelele ze-S&P Kospi, umthombo: Ukutshala imali)
GU-Oldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi imakethe kwikota yokuqala ka-2023 ingase ibe nezinkinga ezithile ngenxa yokwehla komnotho, kodwa ukuhlinzekwa kukawoyela negesi yemvelo kuzoqhubeka nokukhula.
Ngaphezu kwesikhungo sokucwaninga somthengisi, imali eyinhloko isebenzisa igolide nesiliva langempela ukuveza ithemba layo lesikhathi eside ngezimpahla. Ngokusho kwedatha etshalwe yi-Bridge Alternative, amakolishi ayi-15 aphezulu agxile emakethe yezimpahla kulo nyaka, ubukhulu bezimpahla eziphethwe yi-50% kuya ku-$20.7 billion.
UGoldman Sachs uphethe ngokuthi ngaphandle kwemali eyanele yokwakha amandla okukhiqiza acebile, izimpahla zizoqhubeka nokuwa esimweni sokuntuleka kwesikhathi eside, futhi intengo izoqhubeka nokukhuphuka futhi iguquguquke kakhulu.
Ngokuphathelene nezinhloso ezithile, iGoldman Sachs ilindele ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe, okwamanje olinganiselwa ku-$80 ngomphongolo, ukhuphukele ku-$105 ekupheleni kuka-2023; kanti intengo yegesi yemvelo yase-Asia nayo ingakhuphuka isuka ku-$33/izigidi iye ku-$53.
Esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, kube nezimpawu zokululama emakethe enekhono, futhi amakhemikhali akhuphuke kakhulu.
Ngomhlaka-16 Disemba, phakathi kwemikhiqizo engu-110 yokuqapha ulwazi lweZhuochuang, imikhiqizo engu-55 yanda kulo mjikelezo, ifinyelela ku-50.00%; imikhiqizo engu-26 yahlala izinzile, ifinyelela ku-23.64%; imikhiqizo engu-29 yehla, ifinyelela ku-26.36%.
Ngokombono wemikhiqizo ethile, i-PBT, i-polyester filament, kanye ne-benhypenhydronic kusobala ukuthi ziyatholwa.
I-PBT
Muva nje, amanani emakethe ye-PBT akhuphukile, futhi inzuzo ikhuphukile. Kusukela ngoDisemba, imboni yokuqala yaqala ukuhola okuphansi kubakhiqizi bezimpahla ezithengiswayo ezishibhile, futhi ekudonsweni kwe-BDO kwezinto zokusetshenziswa, isimo sengqondo sokwesaba ukwamukela izimpahla sanda, ukunikezwa kwezimpahla ezishibhile emakethe ye-PBT kwancipha, intengo yakhuphuka kancane, inzuzo yemboni yaphenduka.
Ishadi lethrendi yentengo ye-PBT pure resin eMpumalanga China
I-POY
Ngemva kwe-“Golden Nine Silver Ten”, isidingo semicu ye-polyester sinciphe kakhulu. Abakhiqizi baqhubekile nokwenza inzuzo, futhi ukugxila kwentengiselwano kuyaqhubeka nokwehla. Ekupheleni kukaNovemba, ukugxila kwentengiselwano ye-Poy150D kwakungu-6,700 yuan/ton. NgoDisemba, njengoba isidingo sokugcina sabuya kancane kancane, futhi imodeli enkulu yemicu ye-polyester yayinkulu ekugelezeni kwemali, abakhiqizi babethengisa ngamanani aphansi, futhi umbiko waphakanyiswa ngokulandelana. Abasebenzisi abasezansi babekhathazekile ngokuthi izindleko zokuthenga esikhathini sakamuva zanda. Isimo semakethe yemicu ye-polyester siqhubekile nokwenyuka. Maphakathi noDisemba, intengo ye-Poy150D yayingu-7075 yuan/ton, ukwanda ngo-5.6% kusukela enyangeni edlule.
PA
Imakethe ye-benhynhydr yasekhaya isiphelile cishe izinyanga ezimbili, futhi imakethe ilethe ukwehla okukhulu kokubuya. Selokhu yangena kuleli sonto, ethintwe ukubuya kwemakethe ye-benhypenichydr, inzuzo yemboni ye-benhypenhydrate yasekhaya ithuthukile. Phakathi kwazo, inzuzo enkulu yokukhiqizwa kwesampula ye-benhypenhydrate eseduze ingu-132 yuan/ton, ukwanda kwama-yuan angu-568/ton kusukela ngoDisemba 8, kanti ukwehla kungu-130.28%. Intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ihlile, kodwa imakethe ye-bonalide izinzile futhi yabuya, futhi imboni ishintshile ekulahlekelweni. Inzuzo enkulu yesampula ye-pyrine ingu-190 yuan/ton, ukwanda kwama-yuan angu-70/ton kusukela ngoDisemba 8, kanye nokwehla kwama-26.92%. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi intengo yemboni yezinto zokusetshenziswa ibuyele emuva, kuyilapho intengo yemakethe ye-benic anhydride ikhuphuke kakhulu, futhi ukulahlekelwa kwemboni kunciphile.
Ngokuqinisekile, kukhona abanye abahlaziyi abacabanga ukuthi umthelela wokwehla komnotho uthathwe kancane. U-Ed Morse, inhloko yocwaningo lwezimpahla e-Citigroup, uthe kuleli sonto ukuthi ushintsho olungenzeka ezimakethe zezimpahla, olulandelwa ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni jikelele, luzoba usongo olukhulu esigabeni sezimpahla.
Kusebusuku bokusa, silinde isidingo siphele, ngokusho kuka-Youliao. Ngo-2013, isidingo saseShayina sathinteka yilolu bhubhane, kanti ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu kwanciphisa kancane kancane isidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle. Nakuba imakethe ilindele ukuthi ijubane lokunyuka kwesilinganiso se-Fed lizokwehla, kodwa umthelela emnothweni wangempela uzovela kancane kancane, okuholela ekunciphiseni ukukhula kwesidingo. Ukukhululeka kwenqubomgomo yokuvimbela ubhubhane yaseShayina kufake ugqozi ekubuyiseleni esimweni, kodwa izinga lokuqala lokutheleleka lingase libe yizithiyo zesikhashana. Ukubuyela esimweni esimweni eShayina kungase kuqale ngekota yesibili.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba-22-2022