Nakuba ingxenye yesibili ka-2022, amakhemikhali amandla nezinye izimpahla zingene esigabeni sokulungisa, kodwa abahlaziyi bakwaGoldman Sachs embikweni wakamuva basagcizelela ukuthi izici eziyisisekelo ezinquma ukwanda kwamakhemikhali anamandla nezinye izinto azikashintshi, zisazoletha izinzuzo ezikhanyayo. ngonyaka ozayo.
NgoLwesibili, uJeff Currie, umqondisi weGoldman Sachs Commodity Research, kanye noSamantha Dart, umqondisi wocwaningo lwegesi yemvelo, balindele ukulinganiswa kwenani lempahla emikhulu efana nemboni yamakhemikhali, Lokho kusho ukuthi i-S&P GSCI Total Return Index ingase ithole omunye u-43% ngo-2023 ngemuva kwembuyiselo engama-20% kulo nyaka.
(I-S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, umthombo: Ukutshala imali)
Gu-oldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi imakethe engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023 ingase ibe namaqhuqhuva esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho, kodwa ukunikezwa kukawoyela negesi yemvelo kuzoqhubeka nokukhuphuka.
Ngokungeziwe esikhungweni socwaningo somthengisi, imali eyinhloko iphinde isebenzisa igolide langempela nesiliva ukuveza ithemba layo lesikhathi eside mayelana nempahla.Ngokusho kwedatha etshalwe yiBridge Alternative, amakolishi aphezulu ayi-15 agxile emakethe yezimpahla kulo nyaka, usayizi wempahla ephethwe ngu-50% kuya ku- $ 20.7 billion.
UGoldman Sachs uphethe ngokuthi ngaphandle kwemali eyanele yokwakha umthamo wokukhiqiza ocebile, izimpahla zizoqhubeka nokuwela esimweni sokushoda kwesikhathi eside, futhi intengo izoqhubeka nokukhuphuka futhi iguquguquke nakakhulu.
Ngokwalokho okuhlosiwe, uGoldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe, okwamanje ohamba cishe ku-$80 umphongolo, uzokhuphukela ku-$105 ekupheleni kuka-2023;futhi intengo yokuma yegesi yemvelo yase-Asia nayo ingakhuphuka isuka ku-$33/million iye ku-$53.
Esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, kube nezimpawu zokululama emakethe enekhono, futhi amakhemikhali asenyuke kakhulu.
Ngo-December 16, phakathi 110 imikhiqizo ukuqapha Zhuochuang Information,55 imikhiqizo anda kulo mjikelezo, akhawunti 50.00%;Imikhiqizo engama-26 ibanjelwe njalo, ibalwa ku-23.64%;Imikhiqizo engama-29 iwile, yenza ama-26.36%.
Ngokombono wemikhiqizo ethile, i-PBT, i-polyester filament, ne-benhypenhydronic ngokusobala zitholakele.
I-PBT
Muva nje, amanani emakethe ye-PBT akhuphukile, futhi inzuzo iphinde yakhuphuka.Kusukela ngoDisemba, imboni yokuqala yaqala ukuhola okuphansi kubakhiqizi be-inventory ye-spot tight, futhi ku-BDO eluhlaza idonsa ukusebenza, ukwethuka okungapheli ukuthatha isimo sengqondo kwanda, i-PBT market spot supply tight, intengo yenyuka kancane, imboni inzuzo yaphenduka.
Ishadi lentengo le-PBT pure resin price in East China
I-POY
Ngemuva kwe-"Golden Nine Silver Ten", isidingo se-polyester filaments siye sancipha kakhulu.Abakhiqizi baqhubekile nokwenza iphromoshini yenzuzo, futhi ukugxila kokwenziwe kuyaqhubeka nokwehla.Ekupheleni kukaNovemba, ukugxilwa komsebenzi we-Poy150D kwaba ngu-6,700 yuan/ton.NgoDisemba, njengoba isidingo sokugcina silulama kancane kancane, futhi imodeli enkulu ye-polyester filaments yayinkulu ekugelezeni kwemali, abakhiqizi babethengisa ngamanani aphansi, futhi umbiko waphakanyiswa omunye ngemva komunye.Abasebenzisi be-downstream bebekhathazekile ngokuthi izindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla esikhathini sakamuva zinyusiwe.Umkhathi wemakethe ye-polyester filament uqhubekile nokukhuphuka.Maphakathi noDisemba, intengo ye-Poy150D ibingu-7075 yuan/ton, okukhuphuke ngo-5.6% ukusuka enyangeni edlule.
PA
Imakethe yasekhaya ye-benhynhydr isiphelile cishe izinyanga ezimbili, futhi imakethe isingenise ukwehla okukhulu kokuphindaphinda.Selokhu kungene kuleli sonto, kuthinteke ukuphindiselwa kabusha kwemakethe ye-benhypenichydr, inzuzo yomkhakha wasekhaya we-benhypenhydrate iye yaba ngcono.Phakathi kwazo, inzuzo enkulu yokukhiqizwa kwesampula ye-benhypenhydrate engumakhelwane ingu-132 yuan/ton, inyuke ngo-568 yuan/ton kusuka ngoDisemba 8, kanti ukwehla kungu-130.28%.Intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa iwile, kodwa imakethe ye-bonalide izinzile futhi yaphinde yaqina, futhi imboni isishintshile ekulahlekelweni.Isamba senzuzo yesampula ye-pyrine ngu-190 yuan/ton, ukwenyuka ngo-70 yuan/ton kusuka ngoDisemba 8, kanye nokwehla ngo-26.92%.Ikakhulukazi kungenxa yokuthi intengo yemboni yezinto ezingavuthiwe iphinde yakhuphuka, kuyilapho intengo yemakethe ye-benic anhydride yenyuka kakhulu, nokulahlekelwa kwemboni kwehle.
Ngokuqinisekile, kunabahlaziyi abathile manje abacabanga ukuthi umthelela wokuwohloka komnotho ubukelwa phansi.U-Ed Morse, inhloko yocwaningo lwezimpahla e-Citigroup, uthe kuleli sonto ushintsho olungase lube khona ezimakethe zezimpahla, okulandelwa wukwehla kwamandla omnotho emhlabeni jikelele, kungaba yingozi enkulu esigabeni sempahla.
Kubusuku bangaphambi kokuntwela kokusa, silinde ukuthi kuphume isidingo, ngokusho kuka-Youliao.Ngo-2013, isidingo saseChina sathintwa yilolu bhubhane, kanti ukwehla kwamandla emali kwacindezela kancane kancane isidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle.Nakuba imakethe ilindele ukuthi izinga lokukhuphuka kwezinga le-Fed lizohamba kancane, kodwa umthelela emnothweni wangempela uzovela kancane kancane, okuholela ekunciphiseni okuqhubekayo kokukhula kwesidingo.Ukuxegiswa kwenqubomgomo yokuvimbela ubhubhane yaseChina kufake umfutho ekululameni, kodwa inani eliphakeme lokuqala lokutheleleka kusengadala izithiyo zesikhashana.Ukululama eChina kungase kuqale ngekota yesibili.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-22-2022